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RESOLUTION NO.
cf6_ 46
RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF PORT TOWNSEND
ADOPTING A JOINT GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLANNING POPULATION
PROJECTION AS REQUIRED BY THE COUNTY-WIDE PLANNING POLICY FOR
JEFFERSON COUNTY
THE CITY COUNCIL of the City of Port Townsend, Washington, makes the
following Findings and Resolution:
A. FINDINGS:
1. Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend jointly adopted the County-
Wide Planning Policy for Jefferson County (CWPP) on December 21, 1992, as required by
the Washington State Growth Management Act (GMA) (Chapter 36.70A.210 RCW).
2. Policy #10.2 of the CWPP establishes a Joint Growth Management Committee
(JGMC) as a regional oversight body to coordinate the comprehensive planning efforts of
Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend.
3. Policy #1.1 of the CWPP requires the preparation of a joint regional population
forecast for growth management planning purposes which delineates ten, twenty, and fifty
year ultimate population projections for use m the preparation of capital improvement plans.
4. The Watterson West Group, Inc., was retained in the fall of 1994 to prepare the
joint regional population forecast for Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend.
5. A Joint Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the City of Port
Townsend: Final Report (dated December, 1994), was prepared by the Watterson West
Group, Inc., which contained a 20 year population projection and distribution based on the
assumption that three urban growth areas (UGAs) would be designated in eastem Jefferson
County (i.e., Port Townsend, a portion of the Tri-Area Planning Area, and a portion of the
Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area).
6. Subsequent to the release of the December, 1994 joint population forecast and
distribution, an "Addendum" to the Joint Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the
City of Port Townsend: Final Report (dated February 1, 1995), was prepared by the
Watterson West Group, Inc., which was based on the assumption that only two UGAs would
be designated in eastem Jefferson County (i.e., Port Townsend, and a portion of the Port
Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area).
7. The February, 1995 "Addendum" to the joint population forecast was reviewed
and recommended for adoption by the JGMC on February 23, 1995.
Joint Population
Forecast Resolution
1 March 18, 1996
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8. City staff have reviewed the February 1, 1995 "Addendum" to the joint
population forecast and recommend in the attached Summary of Understanding (EXHIBIT A)
that the forecast be "extended" from planning horizons which end in 2014 and 2044,
respectively, to planning horizons which end in the years 2016 and 2046 to ensure
conformance with the requirements of the GMA and CWPP.
9. City staff further recommend m the attached Summary of Understanding that
the distribution to the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area be slightly modified to accurately
reflect the disaggregation between the "urban" and "rural" components of population projected
to occur within that area.
10. On February 14, 1996, the Jefferson County Board of County Commissioners
formally adopted the attached Summary of Understanding, as recommended by' County and
City staff.
11. The Port Townsend City Council has reviewed the attached Summary of
Understanding and agree that it should be formally adopted as the Joint Regional Population
Forecast for growth management planning purposes, as required under CWPP #1.1.
BASED UPON these findings, the Port Townsend City Council resolves as follows:
B. RESOLUTION:
The Summary of Understanding, attached as EXHIBIT A, is hereby adopted as the
Joint Regional Population Forecast for growth management planning purposes, pursuant to
CWPP #1.1.
ADOPTED b.~,the City Council of the City of Port Townsend and signed by the
Mayor on this !/~ t "'day of March, 1996.
Juli¥)ClcCullo ch, Mayor
~~/~viichael l~d~, A' cting City Clerk
A~ ti f°~rn: '
c/Vlah~, ~ity~y
c:~eca~pop~re~duL2
Joint Population
Forecast Resolution
2
March 18, 1996
SUMMARY OF UNDERSTANDING:
Regarding Joint Population Projection & Allocations
Selection of 20 Year Joint Regional Population Forecast:
Tho Rovi~ed Modium Population ~ojootion, drawn from tho Fobruary 1, 1995 "Addondum" to
tho Population Forooast for $0ff0rson County and tho City of Port Townso~d: Final Roport~
proparod by tho Wattorson Wost Crroup, Ino., will bo oxtondod to tho yoar 2016, and usod as
.tho joint rogional population forooast for growth managomont planning purposes (se~
Attaohmont #1 for forooast oxtonsion mothodology, and Attaohmont #2 for population growth
ostimatos by Planning Aroa).
Whon oxtonded to tho yoar 2016, tho Rovis~d Medium Population Projootion for Jofforson
County is projootod to bo 39,396.
Tho Rovised Modium Population Projootion falls within tho population tango adoptod by tho
Washington Stato Of]rico of Financial Managomont for Jofforson County, as roquirod undor
Chaptor 43.62.035 RCW?
20 Year Projected Population Growth - County-Wide:
1. Tho 1996 "baae year" population o~timato for $offorson County is 25,756.2
Thus, $offorson County's population is projootod to grow by approxi~atoly 13,640 porsons owr
tho 20 yoar planning poriod (i.e., 39,396 - 25,756 -- 13,640).
Port Townsend - 1996 Estimated Population & 20 Year Urban Population
Allocation:
Tho 1996 "baso yoa~" population oatimato for tho City of Port Townsend is 8,366 (i.e., 32.48%
of tho County's total population).
Adopted ,~ December 29. 1995, the Growth Manasemmt Act (OMA) P~pulation Projections adopted for Sefferscu County f~ the
ye~ 2016 ere as follows: 1) OFM Low Series - 38.086 (+ 12,330 over the Counters 1996 estimated populaticm); 2) OFM Medium
Serias - 41.579 (+ 15.823 over the County's 1996 estimated population); md 3) 45~64 (+ 20,208 over the Cotmty's 1996
estimated population).
Ali 1996 "base ye~" population e~timates are drawn f~om the October 31. 1995 'Addondum* to the population Forecast for
.~rer~on Coupty and the City of Pon Town~pd: Final ReporL Th'- rationale for supportin~ the uae of ~ docummt as a source
for "base year" population e~imates is as follows: 1) Si-ce the repeal of Ordinmce No. 01-0117-95 in October 1995, Port
Townsend has existed as the only int~;.., urban 8rowth area 0UGA) in Sdt'ersm County. ~) ~n October of ~995, Seffe~son
County conuacted with the WatXer~a Wear Cl~OUp. ~nc., to prepare the Addendum to the Ponulatim Fot~.ast for $Cffm'~P, Gountv
and Pm~ Townsmd, which was based upon thc asaumption that cody Poti Townsend would be dceillnatod an UOA. 3) Th~
Addendum provides projected population eatimatea for the year 1996 for all plazm~ areas within Jefferson Gounty, includl-l~ thc
Port Tow~smd md Po~t Ludlow/Oak Bay Plannin& Area~. 4) Bec_~-_se 1996 OFM 'omc,mt aetual' estimatea of pop,lmlon ~e ~ot
yet available for Se~f~v~m County md tho City of Po~t Townamd. the population eatimatea f~om the Addendum are an app~rL~t~
~ource for 1996 'base ye.~ population eatimaes.
COPIED TO COUNCIL X nmT ^,
UNDERSTANDING I FEBRUARY 6, 1~91~
DATE-:. [//-I I
Port Townaend's urban population allocation for the 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996 through
2016) is 5,510 additional residents, or 40.40% of the projected County-wide population growth.
Thus, upon initial adoption, Port Townsend's Comprehensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a population of 13,876 by the end of the 20 year planning period (I.e., 8,366 +
5,510 ~' 13,876, or 35.22% of the County's total projected population).
Port Ludlow Planning Status:
Currently, Port Ludlow lies witkin the 'rural~ area of unincorporated Jefferson County, and is
not ~ubject to any ~peciai planning designation.
Consistent with the Couotv-Wide Planning Policy for Jefferson County (CWPP), Port Ludlow
is considered as "'being characterized by urban growth' for the purpose of designating UGAs in
the unincorporated County" (CWPP #1.4).
Under the Orowth Management Act (GMA), "ma~ter planned re~orts" may be permitted .which
constitute urban growth outside of urban growth areas (UGA~). A ma~ter planned re~ort
(MPR) mea-~ a ~elf contained and fully integrated planned unit development meeting the
requirements of Chapter 36.70A.360 RCW, as may be amended.
Although not currently designated as a MPR, Port Ludlow will be designated as a MPR or
other appropriate urban planning designation consistent with the OMA (e.g.; UGA) upon/n/tial
adoption of Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan.
1996 Estimated Population of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area & 20
Year Urban Population Allocation to the Port Ludlow MPR:
The 1996 "base year" population estimate for the entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area is
1,985 (f.e., 7.71% of the County's total population).
The 1'996 "base year" population estimate for "urbanized''s portion of the Port Ludlow/Oak Bay
Planning Area ia 1,3264 (i.e., 5.15% of the County's total population).
The projected population for the entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area at the end of the
20 year planning period in 2016 is 4,901. Thus, the projected 20 year population growth for
the entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area is 2,916 additional per~ons (i.e., 4,901 - 1,985
-- 2,916 additional per~ons, or 21.38% of the projected County-wide population growth).
"U~o~' means that por,/on of the Planning Area that will be designated as either a master plmned r--~tt (MPR) or ether
nppropriste u~bnn plnnn/ng designati~m ~onsistmt with the GMA (e.g., UGA) upon ~fitial adoption of ~ffers~n County's
Comprehensive PIm.
~n November, 1994, J'effe~scn County Plmn/ng Stnff conducted m analysis of the J'efferson Cotmty Assessors Dntn Base ~n order
to idmtify the populsti~m within the 'urbanized' poffion of the Prat Ludlow/Oak Bay P!~/n$ Are~ That analy~ revealed that
approximately 1,180, or 66.78% of all 1,767 persons estimated to res/de w/thin the pl~nn/ng Area lived w/th/n 'urbnnizedS areas.
As~tm~n$ this 'urbmized' versus reval percentage (/.e:, 66.78%) remains eons~at, the 1996 or ~base year' popul~ion eatimat~ for
the 'urbanized" portion of the Planning Area is 1326 (/.e., 66.78% of 1.985). For additional information rel~din$ the s~rce for
1996 "base yea~ population estimates, please refer to footn~e #2.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 2
EXHIBIT A
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
V'He
The 20 year urban population allocation for the Port Ludlow MPR ia 90% of the projec~
population growth for .the entire Port Ludlow/Oak Bay Planning Area, or 2,624 additionaR
residents 0. e., 90% of 2,916 = 2,624 additional persons, or 19.24% o£ the projected
wide population growth).
Thus, upon initial adoption, Jefferson Co, unty's Comprehensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a Port Ludlow MPR population of 3,950 reaidents by the end of the 20 year
planning period (i.e., 1,326 + 2,624 = 3,950, or 10.03% of the County's total projected
population).
20 Year Rural Population Allocation:
The 1996 "base year" population estimate for rural areas5 is 16,064 (i.e., 62.37% of the
County's total population).
Rural areas of unincorporated Jefferson County will be allocated that portion of the projecte~t
population growth not allocated to the City of Port Townsend, or the Port Ludlow MPR.
The 20 year rural area population allocation, including the allocation to the Tri-Area Planning
Area, will be 5,506 additional residents (i.e., 13,640 - the Port Town.nd allocation of 5,510 ~
8,130; 8,130 = the Port Ludlow MPR allocation of 2,624 -- 5,506, or 40.36% of the projected
County-wide population growth).
Thus, upon initial adoption, Jefferson County's ComprZhensive Plan will be designed to
accommodate a rural population of 21,570 residents by the end of the 20 year planning period-
(i.e., 16,064 + 5,506 = 21,570, or 54.75% of the County's total projected population).
Tri-Area Planning Status:
Currently, all portions of the Tri-Area Planning Area lie within the "rural" area 'of
unincorporated Jefferson County, and are not subject to any special planning designation.
However, consistent with the County-Wide Planning Policy for Jefferson County (CWPP), the
Tri=Area continues to be considered aa "'being characterized by urban growth' for the purpose
of designating UGAs in the unincorporated County" (CWPP #1.4).
Upon initial adoption of Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan, aH portions of the Tri-Area
Planning Area will be designated "rural," in order to promote appropriate densitiea, intensities
and uses.
Although initially designated as "rural," Jefferson County may in future amend its
Comprehensive Plan to designate portions of the Tri-Area Planning Area as a UGA or other
appropriate planning designation consistent with adopted state and local law and policy, as may
be amended.
It is acknowlcdse~ that "rural" areas of tmincorporated Seffe~ County currently include all are~ not dezi~nnted as interim
growth areas (IUGAs), and that Port Townsend is the County's culy existinlg IUGA. Novmthele~s, fo~ purposes of det~minin$ tho
'base ye~" pepulatic~ estimate for 'rural" ~eas of Seffe~sc~ Cotmty, tho populatien within tho "urbanized" portion of tho
Ludlow/Oak Bay Platming Ar~a is counted a~ existing "urbm' ralher thru "m~l" population.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING 3
EXHIBIT A
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
1996 Estimated Population & 20 Year Rural Population Allocation to the Tri-
Area Planning Area:
The 1996 Mbaso yearn population e~timate for the Tri-Ar~a Planning Area ia 4,324s
16.79% of the County's total population).
The projected population for the Tri-Aroa Planning Area at the end of tho 20 year plannin~
period in 2016 is 5,489.
Thus, the projectmi 20 year population growth for the Tri-Area Planning ,A~ea is 1,165
additional person~ (i.e., 5,489 - 4,324 ~ 1,165 additional persons, or 8.54% of the projected
County-wide population growth, and 2'1.16% of the growth allocated to rural areas). This
allocation a~umes a Mrural" designation for the Tri-Area Planning Area, which may change
with future amendments to Jefferson County's Comprehensive Plan.
IX. Allocation & Urban/Rural Disaggregafion - Summary
Table #1 on page 5 provides summary information regarding the 20 year population allocations to the Port
Townsend UGA, and the Port Ludlow MPR, and the remaining rural areas of unincorporated Jefferson County,
including the Tri-Area rural Planning Area.
Table #2 on page 5 provides summary information regarding the ourrent and future urban/rural population
disaggregation, assuming Port Townsend is dehignated an UGA, and Port Ludlow is designated a MPR (or other
appropriate planning designation consistent with the GMA).
s Please vefe~ to footnote #2 for informafioa regarding the source of 1996 *base ye~* population estimates.
SUMMARY OF EXHIBIT A
UNDERSTANDING 4 FEBRUARY 6, 1996
TABLE #h PORT TOWNSEND UGA, PORT LUDLOW MPR,
& RURAL AREA 20 YEAR POPULATION ALLOCATIONS
AREA ESTIMATED 1996 POPULATION PROJECTED 2016
POPULATION BASE ALLOCATION · POPULATION
URBAN AREAS 9,692 +8,134 17,826
(aggregate) (37.63% of County's 1996 (59.63% of proj_,~___,~_ (45.25% of County's
estimated populntiun) County-wide ~rowth) total projected populatim)
Port Townsend 8,366 + 5,510 13,876
UGA (32.48% of County's 1996 (40.40% of projected (3.5.22% of County's
· e~timatcd populatiun) cmmty-wide ~-ow~h) total projected
Port Ludlow 1,326 +2,624 3,950
~PR (5.15% of County's 1996 (19.24% of projm:ted (10.03% of Co~ty's
eatimated populatim) County-wide ~'ow~h) total proj~ted
RURAL AREAS 16,064 +5,506 21~?0
(aggregate) (62.37% of Count)~s 1996 .(40.37% of projected (40.37% of County's
est/mated popular/m) County-wide growth) total projected popular/m)
Tri-Area 4,3 24 +l,165 5,489
Rural Planning Area (16.79% of County's 1996 (g.§4% of projected Cotmty (13.39% of County's
e~timatcd popul, atiou) -wide $rowth. & 21.16% of total projected population,
projected nmtl area Srowth) &. 25.45% of total projected
rtlral area popnln~i~l)
TABLE #2: CURRENT & FUTURE URBAN/RURAL POPULATION EXPRESSED
AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE COUNTY-WIDE POPULATION TOTAL
1996 URBAN 2016 URBAN 1996 RURAL 2016 RURAL'
POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION
PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE PERCENTAGE
37.63% 45.25%, or + 7.62% 62.37% 54.75%, or- 7.62%
(9,692 of 2.~,756) (17,826 of 39396) (16,064 of 25,7~') (21,570 of 39~396)
UNDERSTANDING
EXH~I~
FEBRUARY
Ne
XL
XH.
Selection of 50 Year Joint Regional Population Forecasts for Utility Planning
Purposes:
Tho High and Low 50 Year Population Projections, drawn from the December, 1994
Pouulation Forecast for Jefferson Court _ty and the City of Port Townsend: Final Report,
prepared by tho Watterson West Group, Inc., will be extended to the year 2046, and used as
the 50 year joint regional population forecasts for utility planning purposes (see Attachment #3
for forecast extension methodology).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for Jefferson County is
projected to be $0,108 (i.e., 24,352 additional persons; 25,7567 + 24,352 -- 50,108).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for Jefferson County is
projected to be 63,040 (i.e., 37,284 additional persons; 25,756 + 37,284 = 63,040).
50 Year Population Projections - Port Townsend:
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for the City of Port
Townsend ia projected to be 17,775 (i.e., 9,409 additional p~rsons; 8,366s + 9,409 ~ 17,775).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for the City of Port
Townsend is projected to be 23,035 (i.e., 14,669 additional persons; 8,366+ 14,669 -- 23,035).
50 Year Population Projections - Combined Planning Areas 2 (Quimper
Peninsula), 3 (Marr0wstone Island), & 4. (Tri-Area):
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year Low Population Forecast for combined Planning
,Areas 2, 3, and 4 is projected to be 13,924 (i.e., 5,834 additional persons; 8,090"-t- 5,834 ~
13,924).
When extended to the year 2046, the 50 Year High Population Forecast for combined Planning
,Areas 2, 3, and 4 is projected to be 16,641 (i.e., 8,551 additional persons; 8,090 + 8,551 --
16,641).
Please refer to fo~note #2 for information regarding the source of 1996 'base ye~*' population estimate~
Please refer to footnote #2 for information regarding the source of 1996 'base yen~ population estimate~
Please refer to foomote #~2 for infonnntion regarding the source of 1996 'base ye,~ population estimates. This figure represents
the total of the 1996 'base ye~* estimates for Pl~nnin$ Areas 2, 3, and 4 (/.e., 2~927 + 839 + 4,324 = 8,090).
SUMMARY OF EXHIBIT A
UNDERSTANDING 6 FEBRUARY 6, 1996
ATTACHMENT #1
Method for Extending the "Revised Medium Population Projection,"
Drawn from the February l, 1995 "Addendum" to the
Population Forecast for Jefferson County and the CitY of Port Townsend: Fin~
Through to the Year 2016
Subtract the 1994 population total from the 2014 projected total to obtain an estimate of the population
growth over .the orisinal planning period.
Divide the estimate of the population growth over the origami planning period by 20 to obtain an
estimate of the average number of additional persons per year.
Divide the average number of additional persona per year by the population projeoted for tho end of fii~
original planning period (i.e., 2014) to obtain the average annual growth rate.
Add the average annual growth rate to the projeoted population at the end of the original planning
period (i.e., 2014) to obtain an estimate of the population in the year 2015.
Add the average annual growth rate to the estimate of the population in the year 2015 to obtain an
estimate of the population in the year 2016.
Calculate the approximate growth over the revised 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996 - 2016):
a. Uso population estimates drawn from the Ootober 31, 1995 "Addendum" to the population
Forecast for Sefferson Coun _ty and tho, Ci_ty of Port Towllsend: Final Report, for all estimates
population during the "base year" for the new 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996)~; and
b. Subtract the 1996 estimated population drawn from the October 31, 1995 nAddendum" from
the "extended" estimate of population in the year 2016 to obtain an estimate of growth over ttto
revised 20 year planning period.
please refer to focanote #2 m page # 1 of the S~mmary of Und~rstimdin8 ,for infotmatic~ r~sardin$ thc sou~c~ of 199G ,b~ y~ ~,
populatim estimates.
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING A-I
ATTACI-IM~NT
COPIED TO COUNCIL
FEBRUARY
ATTACI~M~ENT #2
· Estimates of 2016 Population for Planning Areas
Trends with Constraints, One UGA (Port Townsend) &
One MPR (Port Ludlow)
Planning Area #1 - Port Townsend:
1. 13,331 - 7,940 =' 5,391(projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 5,391 divided by 20 =' 269.55 (average additional persona per year)
3. 269.55 divided by 13,331 = 2.02197% (average annual groWth rate for the period 1994 - 2016)
4. 13,331 + 2.02197% of 13,331 - 13,601 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 13,601 + 2.02197% of 13,601 '= 13,876 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
6. 13,876 - 8,366 = 5,510 (estimated growth for' the period 1996 - 2016)
Plnnning Area #2 - Quimper Peninsula:
1. 3,953 - 2,724 = 1,229 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 1,229 divided by 20 -- 61.45 (average additional persona per year)
3. 61.45 divided by 3,953 = 1.55451% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 3,953 + 1.55451% of 3,953 = 4,014 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 4,014 + 1.55451% of 4,014 -- 4,076 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 4,076 - 2,927 -- 1,149 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #3 = Marrowstone Island:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
995 - 803 = 192 (projected groWth for the period 1994 - 2014)
192 divided by 20 = 9.6 (averago additional persona per year)
9.6 divided by 995 -- 0.96482% (average annual groWth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
995 + 0.96482% of 995 ~ 1,005 (estimated population in the year 2015)
1,005 + 0.96482% of 1,005 = 1,015 (estimated population in the year 2016)
1,015 - 839 = 176 (estimated groWth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING B-I
C01)l£O TO COUNCIL · ATTAC~ #2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #4 - Tri=Area:
1. 5,360 - 4,085 z 1,275 (projeotod growth for tho period 1994 - 2014)
2. 1,275 divided by 20 ,- 63.75 (average additional per~ona per year)
3. 63.75 divided by 5,360 =' 1.18936% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 5,360 + 1.18936% of 5,360 -- 5,424 (osthnatod population in tho y~ar 2015)
5. 5,424 + 1.18936% of 5,424 =- 5,489 (estin~t~d population in the year 2016)
6. 5,489 - 4,324 -= 1,165 (estimated growth for the period 1996 = 2016)
Planning Area' #3 - Discovery Bay:
1. 1,431 - 1,041 - 390 (projootod growth'for tho period 1994 - 2014)
2. 390 divided by 20" 19.5 (average additional persons per year)
3. 19.5 divided by 1,431 z 1.36268% (average annual growth rate for tho period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,431 + 1.36268% of 1,431 .= 1,450 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,450 + 1.36268% of 1,450 = 1,470 (estimated population in tho year 2016)
6. 1,470 - 1,085 -~ 385 (estimated growth for tho period 1996 -.2016)
Planning Area #6 - Center/Inlnnd:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1,715 - 1,274 ~= 441 (projeotod growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
441 divided by 20 =' 22.05 (average additional persons per year)
22.05 divided by 1,715 ~ 1.28571% (average annual growth ram for tho period 1994 - 2014)
1,715 + 1.28571% of 1,715 ,- 1,737 (estimated population in tho year 2015)
1,737 + 1.28571% of 1,737 =- 1,759 .(o~timatod population in the year 2016)
1,759 - 1,351 =' 408 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING B-2
ATTACHIV~iqT #2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #7 - Port' Ludlow/Oak Bay:
1. 4,612 - 1,767 -- 2,845 (projected growth for tho period 1994 - 2014)
2. 2,845 divided by 20 ~ 142.25 (average additional persons per year)
3. 142.25 divided by 4,612 -. 3.08434% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 4,612 + 3.08434% of 4,612 = 4,754 (e~timated population in the year 2015)
5. 4,754 + 3.08434% of 4,754 t 4,901 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 4,901 - 1,985 -- 2,916 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #8 - Shine/Paradise:
1. ' 1,412 - 830 =- 582 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 582 divided by 20 --29.1 (average additional persona per year)
3. - 29.1 divided by 1,412 ~ 2.0609% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,412 + '2.0609% of 1,412 ~ 1,441 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,441 + 2.0609% of 1,441 -- 1,471 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6.' 1,471 - 897 '- 574 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Plnnning Area #9 - Coyle/Tonndos:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
578 - 395 -- 183 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
183 divided by 20 = 9.15 (average additional persons per year)
9.15 divided by 578 ,- 1.58304% (average annual growth rate for the period t994 - 2014)
578 + 1.58304% of 578 ~ 587 (e~tlmnted population in the year 2015)
587 + 1.58304% of 587" 596 (e~timated population in the year 2016)
596 - 411 -- 185 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY pF
UNDERSTANDING B -3
ATTACHMENT #2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
Planning Area #10 - Qnilcene:
1. 1,747 - 1,250 ~ 497 (projeoted growth for tho period 1994 - 2014)
2. 497 divided by 20 .- 24.85 (average additional person* per year)
3. 24.85 dividml by '1,747 "" 1.42243% (average annual growth rate for tho period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,747 + 1.42243% of 1,747 ~ 1,772 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,772 + 1.42243% of 1,772" 1797 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. 1,797 - 1,308 = 490 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #11 - Brinnon:
1. 1,878 - 1,232 ~ 646 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
2. 646 divided by 20 ~ 32.3 (average additional persons per year)
3. 32.3 divided by 1,878 -- 1.71991% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
4. 1,878 + 1.71991% of 1,878 = 1,910 (estimated population in the year 2015)
5. 1,910 + 1.71991% of 1,910 =. 1,943 (estimated population in the year 2016)
6. !,943 - 1,299 '= 644 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
Planning Area #12 - West End:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1,001 - 960 ~' 41 (projected growth for the period 1994 - 2014)
41 divided by 20 ,- 2.05 (average additional persona per year)
2.05 divided by 1,001 -- 0.20479% (average annual growth rate for the period 1994 - 2014)
1,001 + 0.20479% of 1,001 ~ 1,003 (estimated population in the year 2015)
1,003 + 0.20479% of 1,003 - 1,005 (estimated population in the year 2016)
1,005 - 962 = 4;~ (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING B-4
ATrAc~lqT #2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
All Pionning Areas - County-wide:
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
38,012 - 24,300 '" 13,712 (projeoted growth for the poriod 1994 - 2014)
13,712 divided by 20 '" 685.6 (average annual additional persons pot yoar)
685.6 dividml by 38,012 ~ 1.80364% (averago annual growth rat~ for tho period 1994 - 2014)
38,012 + 1.80364% of 38,012 - 38,698 (estimatod population in the year 2015)
38,698 + 1.80364% of 38,698 -. ;]96396 (estimated population in the year 2016)
39,396 - 25,756 -- 13,640 (estimated growth for the period 1996 - 2016)
SUMMARY OF
UNDERSTANDING
'B-5
ATTACHIV~NT/;2
FEBRUARY 6, 1996
ATTACHMENT #3
Method for Extending the 50 Year Joint Regional Population Forecasts for Utility
Planning Purposes, Drawn from the December, 1994 population Foreca$~ for Jefferson
County and the City of Port Townsend: Final Report,
Through to the Year 2046
Subtract tho 1994 population total from the 2044 projected total to obtain an e~timate of the population
growth over tho orisinai 50 year planning period.
Divide the estimate of the population growth over the oriainal planning period by 50 to obtain an
estimate of the average number of additional per~on~ per year.
Divide the .average number of additional persons per year by the population projected for the end of the
original planning period (Le., 2044) to obtain tho average annual growth rate.
Add tho average annual growth rate to tho projected'population at tho end of the ori~nal planning
period (i.e., 2044) to obtain an e~imato of tho population in tho year 2045.
Add the average annual growth rate to the estimate of the population in the year 2045 to obtain an
estimate of the population in the year 2046~
Calculate the approximate growth over the r~viszd 20 year planning period (i.e., 1996 - 2046):
a. Uso population estimates drawn from the October 31, 1995 "Addendum" to the Population
Forecast for Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend: Final Report, for all estimates
population during the "base year" for the new 20 year planning period (~.e.~ 1996)~; and
b. Subtract the 1996 estimated population drawn from the October 31, 1995 "Addendum" from
the "extended" estimate of population in the year 2016 to obtain an estimate of growth over the
revised 50 Year planning period.
I
populm~cn estmxatcs.
SUMM~Y o~
UNDERSTANDING
Ple~ refer to foomotc//2 ~ page//1 of thc Smnmary at'Understanding for infozmafi~ rcgardhg the source of 1996 "boz~ y~
C-I