HomeMy WebLinkAboutA50 V6 Approved 2016 - Sect II - Man-Made Haz A-LJefferson County – City of Port Townsend All Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016)
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MAN-MADE HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
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Man-Made Hazard Identification
The original scope of the Jefferson County Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment (HIVA) was to be an “Natural Hazard” assessment. Since many of the natural hazard risks we face are a function of man-made hazards or events, we have included those in this plan. The objective is to evolve the Natural
Hazard Mitigation Plan into a full All Hazard Mitigation Plan and use it to improve Jefferson County’s ability to deal with the full spectrum of natural and man-made hazards.
AIRCRAFT MISHAP
(Commercial / Civil / Military)
SUMMARY The Hazard: This type of hazard is the failure of an aircraft to suspend itself in flight due to
mechanical or human error resulting in a collision with the ground.1 Impacts and Effects:
• Possible loss of life
• Possible injuries to aircraft occupants and to people on the ground
• Loss of aircraft
• Loss of property on the ground at the crash site
• Increased danger of fires
Previous Occurrences:
• March 21, 1975. An Air Force C141 crashes into the Olympic Mountains near Quilcene Washington. The presumed crash site of an Air Force C141 Starlifter was in a rugged, roadless section of the Olympic Mountains. The four-engine jet of the Air Force Military Airlift Command was carrying 16 persons, including a crew of 10 based at McChord Air Force Base near Tacoma, and six passengers. The plane was on a flight from Yokota Air Base in Japan to McChord.2
• In 2007, a small private aircraft experienced a low-impact crash on landing at the Jefferson County airport. There were no injuries. Pilot claimed a gust of wind caused momentary loss of control resulting in the wingtip touching the ground and spinning the aircraft around.3
• July 29, 2013. The pilot of a small aircraft that crashed while attempting to land over the weekend was due
to be released late Monday. The small yellow plane, a vintage Piper PA-18-135 Super Cub, crashed in a
field off Center Road while attempting to land Saturday after the pilot, Gerald Ryder, determined he did not
have enough fuel to reach Jefferson County International Airport in Port Townsend.4
• September 28, 2015. Two people were seriously injured when their small plane crashed at a Port
Townsend golf course Monday afternoon, East Jefferson Fire officials first tweeted at 1:35 p.m. that a small
plane crashed at the Discovery Bay Golf Course in the 7400 block of Cape George Road. A witness told authorities that the Cessna-type plane stuttered and appeared to lose power before crashing into heavy
brush just north of the 17th hole tee box.5
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• December 30, 2016. “Four occupants of a small airplane died when the aircraft crashed Thursday, Dec. 29
in the woods near the Dabob Bay area along Hood Canal in Jefferson County.”6
Figure AM-1. Emergency responders gather around the Piper Super Cub that flipped during an attempted landing in Quilcene. Photo from PDN; Taken by Jefferson County Sherriff’s Office. Probability of Future Events: Low – The lack of regularly scheduled air service limits the
probability of events to small general aviation operations that occur most frequently on weekends.
Definition
In the context of emergency management and disaster planning, airplane accidents refer to major accidents, resulting in the loss of the hull with multiple fatalities. Civil aviation is a very strictly regulated activity.
A complex web of federal regulations and protocols governs airplanes manufacture, maintenance, and operation. This has resulted in falling accident rates in spite of the persistent increase in air traffic. But major crashes result in the sudden and catastrophic loss of life. A large airplane accident can result in more deaths in an instant than almost any other kind of event. Hence, the public and the media are very concerned with air safety and they expect strict regulation of civilian aviation.7
History of Aircraft Mishaps in Jefferson County
There has not been a major air accident in the Puget Sound region, including Jefferson County, in recent history. However, accidents in other parts of the country allow us to examine the potential vulnerabilities we face in this area. In October 2007, ten people died when a plane carrying a party of skydivers from Idaho
back to Shelton Washington crashed near Yakima Washington.8 In February 2009, a commuter plane with 49 people on board crashed near Buffalo, NY, killing everyone on board.9 And finally, in January 2009, there was the heroic landing of a U.S. Airways Airbus A320 with 154 passengers in the Hudson river after the plane lost all engines due to a bird strike during take-off.10 Everyone survived.
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Hazard Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment
The Puget Sound region is vulnerable to two types of major air transportation accidents. One is a crash involving a large passenger aircraft, while the other is an airplane crash causing casualties on the ground.
Despite the large number of planes flying over heavily populated areas, the number of crashes killing or injuring non-passengers is quite small. In general, crashes are most likely to occur within five miles of an airport, typically along flight paths. Weather is a significant factor in these air transportation accidents. Down bursts, thunderstorms, and ice are the primary weather-related events that increase risk. The Jefferson County International Airport is a general aviation facility with a single 3000 foot east-west runway at an elevation of 107 feet above sea-level. The City of Port Townsend is within a five-mile radius of the Jefferson County airport, but is not along the take-off and landing flight path; therefore, the probability of a mass casualty event if a plane crashed in this area is small unless the plane itself is a passenger aircraft. There are two Home Owner Associations located along the flight path one each off of either end of the runway, but both are somewhat protected by a ring of hills surrounding the airport.
Large passenger aircraft originating from SeaTac Airport in Seattle, and military over flights originating from the region’s numerous military bases add to the possibility of a mass-casualty event if they were to
crash in Jefferson County or within the city of Port Townsend. Since these flights are at high altitudes and supersonic speeds, the probability is small that any given aircraft would have a simultaneous combination of problems, direction, and speed to cause it to drop into the few concentrated population areas of Jefferson
County. CONCLUSION Although a rare possibility, the catastrophic potential of a major aircraft crash in Jefferson County or the City of Port Townsend cannot be ignored. Significant damage to property, utilities and transportation routes could result. Significant financial impact could occur, as well as the inevitable heavy loss of life.
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References – AIRCRAFT MISHAP
1. “Air Transportation Crashes”, City of Kent Hazard Identification & Vulnerability Analysis, City of Kent Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan, 2015. 2. Quilcene, WA (near) Air Force C141 Crashes Into Olympic Mountains, Mar 1975, The Daily Chronicle Centralia Washington, March 21, 1975. 3. NTSB Incident & Accident Report, Jefferson County International Airport, September 8, 2007 4. Quilcene Air Crash, Peninsula Daily News, July 29, 2013. 5. Q13 Fox News Report, by Q13 News Staff, September 28. 2015. Available at: http://q13fox.com/2015/09/28/fire-officials-two-injured-trapped-in-small-plane-crash-at-port-
townsend-golf-course/
6. “4 victims in plane crash identified; FAA and NTSB still investigating”, Leader Staff, The Port Townsend Leader, December 30, 2016 7. “Aircraft Crash”, Clark County Hazard Identification & Hazard Analysis, Clark County Regional
Emergency Services Agency, Clark County, Wa, 2014, p. 47. 8. “All 10 Bodies Found in Washington Plane Crash”, Fox News, October 9, 2007. 9. “No Survivors in Buffalo, NY Commuter Plane Crash”, by Margaret Besheer, www.voanews.com, February 13, 2009. 10. “US Airways airplane crashes in Hudson River – Hero pilot Chesley Sullenberger III saves all aboard”, Burke, Kerry; Donahue, Pete; and Seimaszko, Corky; NY Times, January 16, 2009.
Figures - AIRCRAFT MISHAP
AM-1 Quilcene Air Crash, Peninsula Daily News, July 29, 2013. Photo by Jefferson County Sherriff’s Office.
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BANKRUPTCY
SUMMARY
The Hazard: A large-scale regional or national event such as an earthquake, pandemic, a severe economic recession or depression or simply strategically placed massive incompetence or malfeasance can cause such severe economic disruption as to force a governmental entity into bankruptcy. Impacts and Effects:
• Breakdown of governmental institutions
• Imperilment of life due to the inability to provide life-support services and medicines
• Compromise of immediate response such as emergency shelter, food, water, and medical treatment due to lack of adequate inventories
• Impairment of long term recovery if businesses cannot function
• Permanent loss of businesses if recovery is delayed
• Loss of schools, homes, and businesses as people abandon a moribund geographic area
Previous Occurrences: During the period from 1890 to 1893, Port Townsend experienced a severe local
depression when the railroads stopped at Seattle and Tacoma rather than continuing all the way to Port Townsend.1 Probability of Future Events: Moderate – In 2008, the U.S. entered into a recession. The Port
Townsend paper bill, the largest employer in the area, was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, and the county had to lay off 13 people to balance its budget. At that time, the city and the county tightened their budgets, laid off people, and restructured some of their operations.
Since that time, the local government has stabilized, albeit at a lower level of employment. From time to time, local municipalities and special districts run up against their borrowing capacity due to external
mandates or local disasters. The possibility of a bankruptcy scenario is real, although currently circumstances are not as bad as in previous years. The current biggest threat is to the smaller special districts that have assets located in hazard zones and who can experience catastrophic loss very easily. There is also the possibility of another recession within the next 5-years that will again stress local governments.
Definition
Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other entity that cannot repay the debts it owes to creditors. In most jurisdictions, bankruptcy is imposed by a court order often initiated by the debtor.2 Bankruptcy in the United States is governed under the United States Constitution (Article 1, Section 8, Clause 4) which authorizes Congress to enact "uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States." Congress has exercised this authority several times since 1801, most recently by
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adopting the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978, as amended, codified in Title 11 of the United States Code and commonly referred to as the "Bankruptcy Code" ("Code").3
Chapter 9, Title 11, United States Code is a chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, available exclusively to municipalities, that assists them in the restructuring of debts. On July 18, 2013 Detroit,
Michigan became the largest city in the history of the United States to file for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy protection. Jefferson County, Alabama, in 2011 and Orange County, California, in 1994 are also notable examples. "The term 'municipality' means political subdivision or public agency or instrumentality of a
State."4
A large-scale regional or national event such as an earthquake, pandemic, a severe economic recession or depression or simply strategically placed massive incompetence or malfeasance can cause such severe
economic disruption as to force a governmental entity into bankruptcy. Figure BR-1below shows all municipalities filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection during the period
2010 - 2015, along with local governments voting to approve a bankruptcy filing.5 Cities, towns and counties are shown in red. Utility authorities and other municipalities are displayed in gray. Multiple municipalities have filed for bankruptcy in some cities, such as Omaha, Neb., so not all markers are visible. Please note that some listed municipal bankruptcy filings may have been dismissed.
Figure BR-1 Bankrupt Cities and Municipalities - 20155
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Selected Examples of Municipal Bankruptcies
The State of Illinois and the City of Chicago have each been on the brink of bankruptcy for years. As of 2012, there were approximately 640 municipal bankruptcies that had been filed since 1937. Table BR-1 lists some examples of the both the larger municipalities and those in the vicinity of Jefferson County, Washington.6
Table BR-1 Selected Municipal Bankruptcies6
Municipality Date Circumstances Notes
Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS) 1983 Due to halt in construction of planned nuclear reactors.
Orange County, California 1994
$1.7 billion (largest municipal bankruptcy until November 2011, and $3 billion when adjusted for inflation), on interest rate-related losses
Prichard, Alabama 1999 Inability to pay pensions.
Millport, Alabama 2005 Due to loss of sales tax revenues after factory closing. What would happen if Port Townsend Paper closed? Los Osos, California 2006 Debt related to a wastewater facility. Pierce County Housing Authority, Pierce County, Washington 2008 Residents’ lawsuits due to mold in properties.
Jefferson County, Alabama November 2011
November 2011, over $4 billion in debt (largest Chapter 9 bankruptcy until 2013 Detroit bankruptcy filing,) from sewer revenue bonds tainted by an interest rate swap bribery scandal with JPMorgan and county commissioner Larry Langford, and bond insurance credit rating collapse in the late-2000s subprime mortgage crisis, followed by the occupation tax being declared unlawful in Alabama.
Placed here for startle reaction because it has the same county name. It can happen here.
Detroit, Michigan 2013
A report on the financial health of Detroit was released by Orr in May 2013. The report stated that Detroit is “clearly insolvent on a cash flow basis” and that the city would finish its current fiscal year with a US$162 million cash-flow shortfall. It also stated that the city’s budget deficit would reach $386 million in less than two months and that one-third of the city’s budget was going toward retiree benefits.7
Largest municipal bankruptcy to date, August 2016.
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History of bankruptcy in Jefferson County, Washington
During the late 1880’s, there was a boom period in which Port Townsend leaders thought the city would become the capitol of Washington. In the fiscal year 1884-1885, for example, a larger number of steamships
entered and cleared through Port Townsend than in any other port in the United States. In 1889, Port Townsend’s leading real estate speculators created the Port Townsend Southern Railroad with the intention of building a line from Port Townsend to Portland, Oregon. “Port Townsend’s population suddenly swelled to some 7,000. During a brief few years were constructed the majority of mansions and major business buildings revered today for their history.”8 In the spring of 1890 the Port Townsend Southern Railroad negotiated a deal with the Oregon Improvement Company, a subsidiary of Union Pacific, to build the proposed railroad. By the summer of 1891, the line
had been built from Port Townsend to Quilcene, but no farther. By Thanksgiving, The Oregon Improvement Company was put into receivership as a combination of bad management and a national depression drove the economy down. “By the time the depression reached panic proportions in 1893, the
city’s population had dwindled to some 2,000 souls.”9
Although it did not declare bankruptcy, the Port Townsend economy languished in the doldrums until the
1920’s when the paper mill was built.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS
In 1994, Orange County California declared bankruptcy when their county treasurer of 24 years drove the county into insolvency by “investing” in derivatives to subsidize the county’s reliance on interest income. Leveraged with two dollars borrowed for every dollar of capital, falling interest rates made it impossible to pay back creditors. When the state refused to help the county, it was left with no choice to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy. The circumstances deserve consideration for a number of reasons:
• California Proposition 13 had limited local government ability to raise taxes.
• In FY94, interest made up 12% of Orange County’s revenues vs. 3% for all other California counties. By FY95, it was intended that interest would be 35% of revenues.
• The county turned to riskier investments to offset declining revenues in the face of increasing costs.
• County government declared bankruptcy on December 6, 1994.
• The state refused to intervene, thus negating an implied moral obligation of states to help their
municipalities.
• Voters rejected a half-cent sales tax increase as part of a recovery plan.
In When Government Fails: The Orange County Bankruptcy, Mark Baldassare identified three
conditions necessary for a municipal bankruptcy: political fragmentation, voter distrust, and state fiscal austerity.10
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The Jefferson County Washington Parallel
In 2009, Jefferson County was experiencing similar financial difficulties as Orange County did in 1994:
• Washington Proposition 747 limited the growth of property taxes to1% per year without specific
taxpayer approval. Overturned by the State Supreme Court, its provisions were quickly reenacted by
the legislature because of public outcry.
• A major recession, started by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, dried up both building
permit revenues and interest income to the county.
• By the end of February 2007, the county had earned $283,924 in interest income on the $1,094,358 it
had collected for the full year. By the end of February 2009, the county had taken in $26,051 in
interest income.11
• County voters have rejected two bond measures to fund the building of a new elementary school, thus
forcing the consolidation of schools and laying off of teachers.
• Washington State was nine billion dollars in the red for the 2010-2011 biennium, and cutting back
programs and levels of funding to local governments.
Fast forward to 2016, and we see that there still are issues that make local jurisdictions vulnerable to the next downswing in the economy or local and regional natural disasters that cause considerable damage to public or private infrastructure:
• The City of Port Townsend is mandated to enhance its water treatment by the Federal
government. It is building a new $16 million water treatment facility and an $8 million
seismically sound 5 million-gallon water reservoir to replace an existing one that is deteriorating,
thus adding significant long-term debt to the city budget12;
• The Brinnon Fire Department lost an unmanned station and an engine and related equipment due
to flooding in 2015. The Chief, at that time, indicated that they had $14,000 in damage to the
engine, a $40,000 bill for flood cleanup, one station closed due to disrepair, and the cost to move
the flooded-out station estimated at $1.2 million13;
• Port Townsend Paper Corporation, the largest private employer in the county, is built on the
shoreline of Port Townsend Bay and is vulnerable to tsunamis.
Jefferson County is unique in Washington in that it is becoming a retirement county. Over 56% of the population is over 65 now.14 Over sixty percent of revenues are transfer payments, contingent on the health of the financial markets. The primary commercial sectors of the county economy are the paper mill, a thriving maritime industry, and tourism. The majority of Jefferson County economic assets are north of State Highway 104 on the Quimper peninsula. The Quimper Peninsula has three main arterials, Highway 104, U. S. 101, and the State Ferry System. The loss of any one of these for a significant period of time impacts sales tax and business tax revenues; forces some businesses to close; and puts stress on local government services.
Although many states, counties, and municipalities were hard hit by the 2009 recession, circumstances are such that Jefferson County did not reach a tipping point. Jefferson County, however, does show evidence of the precursors that make it vulnerable to entering a bankruptcy scenario. In an emergency management
context, this could result in the outsourcing of 9-1-1 capabilities to other counties, the elimination of
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emergency management as a separate entity and its being brought back under the auspices of the Sheriff’s Office or outsourced, as well. Emergency services in the county would have to go on an austerity program
even as the influx of retirees is putting an increased demand on health and EMT services.
Conclusion Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend are vulnerable to significant economic disruptions due to their geography, location and the ease with which they can be isolated. The precursors to municipal bankruptcy are present and suggest that it is possible for circumstances to degrade sufficiently to push area jurisdictions in that direction. Strong cooperation among county and city officials is necessary to weather the storm and prevent a local economic disaster. Any kind of significant disaster event, such as a major earthquake, tsunami, flood or a prolonged loss of power due to failure of the electrical grid, can push Jefferson County, the City of Port Townsend and / or
any of the special districts over the tipping point and necessitate contemplating bankruptcy. The area is one natural disaster away from a financial disaster.
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References - BANKRUPTCY
1. Port Townsend: An Illustrated History of Shanghaiing, Shipwrecks, Soiled Doves and Sundry Souls, Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing, Inc. 2000, p.292.
2. “Bankruptcy”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy
3. “Bankruptcy in the United States” Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States
4. “Chapter 9, Title 11, United States Code”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_9,_Title_11,_United_States_Code
5. “Bankrupt Cities, Municipalities List and Map”, Governing, Last Updated August 2015, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.governing.com/gov-data/municipal-cities-counties-
bankruptcies-and-defaults.html
6. “Partial List of Municipal Bankruptcies”, Chapter 9, Title 11, United States Code, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_9,_Title_11,_United_States_Code
7. “Detroit Bankruptcy”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy
8. Port Townsend: An Illustrated History of Shanghaiing, Shipwrecks, Soiled Doves and Sundry Souls,
Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing, Inc. 2000, p.292.
9. Ibid. 10. When Government Fails: The Orange County Bankruptcy – A Policy Summary, Marc Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California, Sacramento, Ca. March 18, 1998.
11. Auditor: “No Longer Pollyanna’ in terms of the budget, Allison Arthur, Port Townsend Leader, March
11, 2009. 12. Water Treatment & Reservoir, Capital Projects, Department of Public Works, Port Townsend City of Port Townsend Website, Accessed: August 2016. Available at:
https://ptdrinkingwaterprojects.wordpress.com/schedule-and-funding/
13. Email from Chief of Brinnon Fire Department, Patrick Nicholson, to the Hazard Mitigation Plan Project Coordinator detailing the financial circumstances the department was in due to the winter’s flooding, dated February 11, 2015.
14. County Growth Management Population Projections by Age and Sex: 2010-2040, Forecasting Division, State of Washington Office of Financial Management, August 2012, p6.
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Tables - BANKRUPTCY
BR-1 Selected Municipal Bankruptcies
Figures - BANKRUPTCY
BR-1 Bankrupt Cities and Municipalities - 2015
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CIVIL DISTURBANCE1
SUMMARY
The Hazard: Any incident that disrupts a community to the degree that police intervention is required to maintain public safety is a civil disturbance or civil disorder. Demonstrations, riots, strikes, public nuisances, domestic disputes, terrorism, and/or criminal activities fall into this category. Impacts and Effects:
• Loss of life
• Loss of property
• Closure of businesses
• Looting
• Arson
• Long term divisiveness in the community
• Adverse impacts on tourism and economic development
• Increased demands on law enforcement and emergency response resources
• Increased demands on mental health resources Previous Occurrences: Multiple domestic disputes, criminal activities, and public nuisances occur each month and are routinely dealt with by local law enforcement authorities. In 1998, the Washington State EOC was activated in response to the Makah Indian Nation proposed whale-hunting activities at
Neah Bay. Probability of Future Events: High – The broad definition assures occurrences. Even with a narrow
definition, local schools receive bomb threats once or twice a year, and local peace groups hold periodic sit-ins at the front gate of U.S. Navy Magazine – Indian Island.
Figure CD-1 - Sit-in at U.S. Navy Magazine – Indian Island (NAVMAG) Entrance2
37 people were arrested at Indian Island, a naval base near Port Townsend, Washington. The protest was one of many carried out across the country as part of a national "Declaration of Peace" campaign, which calls for a comprehensive plan for withdrawal from Iraq and opposition to future invasions of other countries. The arrests were witnessed by over 350 supporters who participated in a 4 mile peace march to the navy base, which is the main weapons shipping depot on the west coast.2 Source: DeclarationofPeaceWaBlogspot.com
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DEFINITION3
Any incident that disrupts a community to the degree that police intervention is required to maintain public safety is a civil disturbance or civil disorder. Demonstrations, riots, strikes, public nuisances, domestic disputes, terrorism, and/or criminal activities fall into this category. The hazard could surface in any community, and can be sparked by disagreements ranging from simple family disturbances to political, racial, belief, social and economic differences that escalated beyond an exchange of words.
HISTORY OF CIVIL DISTURBANCES IN JEFFERSON COUNTY
Jefferson County has not experienced the violence associated with riots occurring in nearby Seattle in the 1990s. In Seattle, a small-scale riot occurred after the 1992 Rodney King verdict. After the jury’s decision was announced small groups of people roamed downtown Seattle streets smashing windows, lighting
dumpster fires and overturning cars. In 1999, during the World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference, riots resulting in injury and death of participants and bystanders occurred. The City of Seattle declared an emergency and the Governor signed a proclamation of emergency allowing commitment of state resources
to support affected local jurisdictions. In 1998, the Washington State EOC was activated in response to the Makah Indian Nation proposed whale-
hunting activities at Neah Bay. At the request of the Clallam County Sheriff, the State of Washington provided resources from the National Guard, Washington State Patrol, Department of Fish and Wildlife, Department of Natural Resources and Emergency Management Division to control disturbances between
protestors and residents. County High Schools including Port Townsend, Chimacum, and Quilcene have all had bomb scares and have had instances of students bringing weapons to school. Following the Columbine High School experience in Colorado, such incidents have been approached with intense seriousness. Although nothing approaching the level of Columbine has occurred, school officials are aware and cognizant of the
possibilities. As the conflict in Iraq became more of a certainty, several protesting groups promised “civil disobedience”. While the larger marches were held in Seattle and Tacoma, there was vocal opposition evident in Jefferson County. Participants did not resort to violence, but wherever there are strong opposing views, the potential existed for words and signs to be replaced by more violent activities.
The Naval Magazine (NAVMAG) continues to be the main target for low-level demonstrations. Figure CD-2 shows a group of peace marchers that started their trek at the NAVMAG gate and marched to the Pope Marine Park in Port Townsend, a distance of about nine miles.4
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Figure CD-2 - A Peace March from NAVMAG to Port Townsend.4
Source: Port Townsend Leader
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Civil disturbances are divisive, often complex in their origin, and are possible in nearly every community
in the nation. As the population continues to grow, so will the concentrations of ethnic groups, varied perspectives, and disparate economic status. Jefferson County has experienced a growth rate that has outpaced the rest of the State of Washington. Diverse philosophies exist in county residents. As the
economy fluctuates due to economic realities of declining fishing and forest industries, emotions tend to run high. Tourism, a major source of revenue for county businesses could be affected by an increasing potential or the actual developments of civil disturbances.
That being said, the Peace Movement in Port Townsend tends to be just that – peaceful. The city is somewhat unique in that it has a significant military establishment, the Naval Magazine on Indian Island, across from a city that was discovered and populated by the “Hippie” generation in the 70’s, and who are now many of the senior citizens. Generally, everyone is tolerant of each other’s views, and protests tend to be lawful. If circumstances were to arise in which outsiders came in to cause a problem because of some kind of incident, the city and / or county would have to ask for outside help in dealing with it.
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CONCLUSION
The potential for civil disturbances exists in Jefferson County. Main participants might not be residents of the county. County law enforcement resources are aware and have practiced response scenarios if such
disturbances occur.
References – CIVIL DISTURBANCE
1. The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2011, pp. 48-50. 2. “37 Arrested at Indian Island Naval Base to Protest the Occupation of Iraq”, by Liz Revera Goldstein, DeclarationofPeaceWA Blogspot, 9/23/2006. Unattributed Photo. Available at: http://declarationofpeacewa.blogspot.com/2006/09/37-arrested-at-indian-island-naval.html 3. The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2011, p. 48. 4. “A Peace March from NAVMAG to Port Townsend”, Photo by Nicholas Johnson, Published in the
Port Townsend Leader, January 20, 2016
Figures - CIVIL DISTURBANCE
CD-1 Sit-in at U.S, Navy Magazine – Indian Island Entrance CD-2 A Peace March from NAVMAG to Port Townsend
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DAM FAILURE1
SUMMARY The Hazard: “A dam is a barrier across flowing water that obstructs, directs or slows down the flow,
often creating a reservoir, lake or impoundments. Most dams have a section called a spillway or weir over which, or through which, water flows, either intermittently or continuously, and some have hydroelectric power generation systems installed.”2 A levee is an embankment raised to prevent a river from
overflowing. Levees are also small ridges or raised areas bordering an irrigated field. A dike is an embankment built along the shore of a sea or lake or beside a river to hold back the water and prevent flooding.3 “Dams are considered "installations containing dangerous forces" under International Humanitarian Law due to the massive impact of a possible destruction on the civilian population and the environment.”4
Dam failure is the uncontrolled release of impounded water resulting in downstream flooding that can affect life and property. Flooding, earthquakes, blockages, landslides, lack of maintenance, improper
operation, poor construction, vandalism or terrorism can cause dam failures. Dam failures are comparatively rare, but can cause immense damage and loss of life when they occur.5
Impacts and Effects:
• Loss of life
• Loss of homes and businesses
• Loss or long-term disruption to water supplies
• Firefighting water sources adversely impacted
• Business depending on large quantities of water severely impacted
• Road and bridge washouts
• Loss of crops and livestock
• Damage or destruction of salmon streams
• Damage or loss of recreation facilities
• Loss of jobs due to damaged equipment and facilities
Previous Occurrences: Dam failure has not been a major concern for the residents of Jefferson
County. There has been no history of lives lost, property loss, or other damage as the result of dam failures. Probability of Future Events: Low – Increasing to Moderate. Regular inspections mitigate the
possibility of a spontaneous dam failure without an external factor. A severe earthquake could cause the
destruction of any given dam but the probability of a severe earthquake is low, even as the consequences are high. The National Inventory of Dams (NID) contains information on approximately 79,000 dams throughout the U.S. that are more than 25 feet high, hold more than 50 acre-feet of water, or are considered a significant hazard if they fail. The current National Inventory for Dams for Jefferson County lists 4 dams
that meet that criteria6. Table DF-1 shows the four Jefferson County dams listed on the inventory7.
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Definition
Dam failure is the uncontrolled release of impounded water resulting in downstream flooding that can affect
life and property. Flooding, earthquakes, blockages, landslides, lack of maintenance, improper operation, poor construction, vandalism or terrorism can cause dam failures. “All dams are assigned a high, significant, or low hazard classification based on potential of loss of life and damage to property should the dam fail. This classification is considered the Dam Hazard, and indicates the potential hazard to the downstream area resulting from failure or mis-operation of the dam or facilities. Classifications are updated based on development and changing demographics upstream and downstream. Washington State describes each of the different hazard classifications as follows:
• Low - A dam where failure or mis-operation results in no probable loss of human life and low
economic and/or environmental loss. Losses are principally limited to the owner's property.
• Significant - A dam where failure or mis-operation results in the potential of one to six losses of
human life but can cause economic loss, environmental damage, disruption of lifeline facilities, or
impact other concerns. These dams are often located in predominantly rural or agricultural areas but
could be located in areas with more dense populations and significant infrastructure.
• High - A dam where failure or mis-operation will probably cause a potential loss of greater than seven
human lives.”8
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Figure DF-1 - Location of Port Townsend Paper ASB Pond
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Figure DF-2 - Location of Lords Lake East Dam
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Figure DF-3 - Location of Big Lake Outlet Structure
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Figure DF-4 - Location of Lords Lake North Dam
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Table DF-2 - Downstream Hazard Classifications9
The Washington Department of Ecology Dam Safety Section has five dams listed on its state inventory of dams for Jefferson County. Shown below in Table DF-3, two are listed as High risk (Cat. 1A), and one is listed as Significant risk (Cat. 2), and two are listed as Low risk (Cat. 3).10
History of Dam Failure in Jefferson County
Dam failure has not been a major concern for the residents of Jefferson County. There has been no history of lives lost, property loss, or other damage as the result of dam failures.
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Table DF-3 - Jefferson County Dams listed in the WA Department of Ecology State Dam Inventory
Source: Wa Dept of Ecology
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
There are two publicly owned, and three privately owned dams of consequence in the county. Both
publicly- owned dams are property of the City of Port Townsend. Morgan Hill Reservoir, which is at the highest point in the City of Port Townsend, also used to be on the list. It was categorized as a Category 1A, High Downstream Hazard Potential because it is in the middle of the city. It no longer
meets state standards, so the reservoir is left dry and its risk of a downstream catastrophe is nil. The City intends to surplus the property in the future.
The Lords Lake East and Lords Lake North dams are categorized as having a “High Downstream Hazard Potential” with a population risk of 31 – 300. Economic loss that could result if these dams were to fail is rated as extreme with 11-100 inhabited structures downstream of the dam. High hazard dams (dams located upstream of three or more residences) are supposed to be inspected on a 6-year inspection cycle. Figure DF-5, below, shows that a failure of the Lords Lake East Dam has the potential to inundate a significant portion of the Quilcene area of Jefferson County.11
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Figure DF-5 – Lord’s Lake East Dam Failure Inundation Zone11
Source: Jefferson County GIS
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All of the State’s 116 high hazard dams have previously been inspected, although during the years of 1999-2000, some of the inspections were deferred due to heavy workloads in plan reviews and construction inspections of new projects. Previous history, inspections, and information received by the Department of Ecology, however, indicated that Jefferson County’s dams did not have significant safety deficiencies. As a result, the Washington State Department of Ecology’s “2000 Report to the
Legislature—Status of High and Significant Hazard Dams in Washington State with Safety Deficiencies” does not indicate that these dams have significant safety deficiencies.
In general, periodic inspections and follow-up engineering analysis are conducted to:
• Identify defects, especially due to aging
• Evaluate dam operations and maintenance
• Assess dam structural integrity and stability
• Assess the stability of dam structures under earthquake conditions Inspections look not only at the dam, but also at the downstream development that has taken place to ensure that encroachment into the area project to be flooded in the event of a dam failure has not taken
place. Such encroachment would change the hazard classification. The State Dam Safety Office is also attempting to examine smaller dams such as city’s old reservoir systems. These dams were often built many years before stringent requirements were in place. The State Dam Safety Office is attempting to
get these smaller dams on a schedule for comprehensive inspections and repair as well. While the failure of projects with a high potential for loss of life and property is remote, the number of failures of low hazard projects that provide important infrastructure roles may be on the rise.
Conclusion
Three state statues deal with safety of dams and other hydraulic structures: Chapters 43.21A, 86.16, and
90.03 RCW. These laws provide authority to approve plans for dams but also to inspect hydraulic works and require appropriate changes in maintenance and operation. Periodic inspections are the primary tool for detecting deficiencies at dams that could lead to failure. Periodic inspections help identify dams
where significant development has occurred downstream resulting in the need for more stringent building and planning codes due to greater population at risk. County building permits consider dams in the permit process.
It is noteworthy that a dam’s classification can move from Significant Risk (Cat. 2) to High Risk (Cat. 1A), not because the dam is becoming structurally unsound, but rather because there is more development downstream that can be damaged in a breach.
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References – DAM FAILURE
1. “Dam Failure”, The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County
Department of Emergency Management, 2011, pp. 51-53. Available at:
http://www.jeffcoeoc.org/documents/Jefferson%20Co%20HIVA%202011.pdf
2. “Dam Failure”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
3. “Dam Safety Hazard Profile”, Washington State Enhanced Mitigation Plan, Washington Military
Department, Emergency Management Division, August 2012, Tab 5.12, p.3. Available at:
http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-PLAN/Dam_Safety_Hazard_Profile.pdf
4. “Dam Failure”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
5. Ibid.
6. “Dam Safety Hazard Profile”, Washington State Enhanced Mitigation Plan, Washington Military
Department, Emergency Management Division, August 2012, Tab 5.12, p.4. Available at:
http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-PLAN/Dam_Safety_Hazard_Profile.pdf
7. NID Interactive Report, http://nid.usace.army.mil/cm_apex/f?p=838:4:0::NO
8. “Dam Safety Hazard Profile”, Washington State Enhanced Mitigation Plan, Washington Military
Department, Emergency Management Division, August 2012, Tab 5.12, p.6. Available at:
http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-PLAN/Dam_Safety_Hazard_Profile.pdf
9. Ibid.
10. Inventory of Dams in the State of Washington, by Dam Safety Section, Washington Department of
Ecology, Publication 94-016, November 2015. Accessed August, 2016. Available at:
https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/SummaryPages/94016.html
11. Lords Lake Inundation Zone, Jefferson County GIS, 2009.
Tables - DAM FAILURE
DF-1 “Jefferson County Dams Listed on the National Inventory of Dams”, National Inventory of Dams, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NID Interactive Report, http://nid.usace.army.mil/cm_apex/f?p=838:4:0::NO
DF-2 Downstream Hazard Classification
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Figures - DAM FAILURE
DF-1 Location of Port Townsend Paper ASB Pond, National Inventory of Dams, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CorpsMap, http://nid.usace.army.mil/ DF-2 Location of Lords Lake East Dam, National Inventory of Dams, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CorpsMap, http://nid.usace.army.mil/ DF-3 Location of Big Lake Outlet Structure, National Inventory of Dams, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CorpsMap, http://nid.usace.army.mil/
DF-4 Location of Lords Lake North Dam, National Inventory of Dams, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, CorpsMap, http://nid.usace.army.mil/ DF-5 Lord’s Lake East Dam Failure Inundation Zone, Jefferson County GIS Department.
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HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INCIDENT1
SUMMARY The Hazard: “A hazardous material is any item or agent (biological, chemical, radiological, and/or physical), which has the potential to cause harm to humans, animals, or the environment, either by itself or through interaction with other factors.”2 Impacts and Effects: Any or all of the following could occur: illness and injuries, loss of life, first responders, population and workers at risk until abatement is effective; explosions resulting in destruction and fires; permanent loss of fishing, clam beds, and oyster beds from chemical spills; loss of recreation sites and tourism; potential contamination of water supplies, business closures; long term loss of property use; potential lawsuits tying up property and funding for years. Previous Occurrences: Hazardous material spills occur frequently with varying degrees of response necessitated. The last significant response was in 2008 when a leak developed in a propane truck. Nearby restaurants and a school were evacuated and State Highway 19 was closed until the situation was brought
under control. Probability of Future Events: High – Hazardous material spills happen 25 – 30 times per year. Most
are small and are not reportable. The State Department of Ecology requires spills to be reported if they are
over 25 gallons. Definition: The production, use, storage, transportation and disposal of hazardous material substances and
wastes, places the public and the environment at significant risk. A release may occur by spilling, leaking, emitting toxic vapors, or any other process that enables the materials to escape its container, enter the environment, and create a potential hazard. The nature and extent of this risk is difficult to determine as the process involved in hazardous materials and toxic waste management are dynamic. Many federal laws and regulations exist to manage the manufacture, utilization, and disposal of hazardous materials. “Hazardous materials are defined and regulated in the United States primarily by laws and regulations administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), and the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC). Each has its own definition of a "hazardous material." OSHA's definition includes any substance or chemical which is a "health hazard" or "physical hazard,"
including: chemicals which are carcinogens, toxic agents, irritants, corrosives, sensitizers; agents which act on the hematopoietic system; agents which damage the lungs, skin, eyes, or mucous membranes; chemicals which are combustible, explosive, flammable, oxidizers, pyrophorics, unstable-reactive or water-reactive;
and chemicals which in the course of normal handling, use, or storage may produce or release dusts, gases, fumes, vapors, mists or smoke which may have any of the previously mentioned characteristics. (Full definitions can be found at 29 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 1910.1200.) EPA incorporates the OSHA definition, and adds any item or chemical which can cause harm to people, plants, or animals when released by spilling, leaking, pumping, pouring, emitting, emptying, discharging, injecting, escaping, leaching, dumping or disposing into the environment. (40 CFR 355 contains a list of over 350 hazardous and extremely hazardous substances.)
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DOT defines a hazardous material as any item or chemical which, when being transported or moved in
commerce, is a risk to public safety or the environment, and is regulated as such under its Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration regulations (49 CFR 100-199), which includes the Hazardous Materials Regulations (49 CFR 171-180). In addition, hazardous materials in transport are regulated by the
International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code; Dangerous Goods Regulations of the International Air Transport Association; Technical Instructions of the International Civil Aviation Organization; and U.S. Air Force Joint Manual, Preparing Hazardous Materials for Military Air Shipments.”3
History of Hazardous Materials Spills Affecting Jefferson County
Data reported to Jefferson County about occurrences happening to hazardous materials averages from 25 to 30 per year. Clean up is the responsibility of the spiller; however the spiller or waste-dumper may not be known. Occurrences have ranged from marine oil spills during bunkering operations to spilled fuel or oil on the road from accidents or overturned containers. Calls are received regarding illegal burning, propane leaks, illegal dumping, blasting caps, sewage, and many other various incidents. Figure HM-1 shows total reported spills by county for the period 2000 to 2007.4 Jefferson County is among the lower risk counties, but probably because there are far fewer chemical facilities to present opportunities. Figure HM-2 shows the number of facilities and chemicals by county for 2012.5
Figure HM-1 - Total Spills Reported by County for 2000 - 20074
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Figure HM-2 - Facilities and Chemicals by County for 20125
During the Persian Gulf operations known as “Desert Storm” and during Operation Iraqi Freedom, several thousand tons of explosive passed through eastern Jefferson County between the Hood Canal Bridge and
Naval Magazine Indian Island. The type of cargo that is loaded/offloaded at NAVMAG Indian Island is primarily ammunition (e.g., bombs, bullets and missiles). Contract trucks and trailers made several trips each day moving materials between Indian Island and Naval installations in Kitsap County. Trucks moving hazardous materials to Port Angeles and locations in Clallam County often also transit Jefferson County roads.
Illegal drug labs encountered by state and local agencies increased dramatically from 38 in 1990 to 1,890 in 2001 at its peak, to 92 in 2010. Ecology is responsible for handling and disposing of hazardous substances found at illegal drug lab sites.6 The cumulative number for Jefferson County was 44 through 2012, the last
year that Ecology has posted on its website. Figure HM-3 below shows the cumulative reports through 2011.7 Table HM-1 breaks out the number of clandestine labs reported by year through 2012.8 While the absolute numbers for Jefferson County look low compared to King County and the more heavily populated
counties, Table HM-2 shows that the cumulative number of labs reported in the more rural counties of the Olympic Peninsula are actually higher on a per capita basis that for the urban areas.9
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Figure HM-3 - Clandestine Drug Lab and Dumps by County7
Nearly all of Washington’s clandestine drug labs manufacture methamphetamine – also called meth, crystal, crank, or speed. Figure HM-4 shows the totals from Table HM-1 in graphic form. Law enforcement intelligence indicates the recent decline from 2001 through 2012 may correspond with inexpensive drugs
manufactured in Mexico and entering the United States.10 Heroin usage is on the increase again. The less populated counties near good transportation routes provide havens for drug manufacture and transportation because they do not have the resources focus heavily on drug interdiction. This is exacerbated by the making of marijuana available legally for recreational use. It has encouraged “drug tourism” and an influx of transients looking for easy access to marijuana. This, in turn, has resulted in a degradation of community facilities as the parks and public areas become trashed with hazardous materials.
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Table HM-2 - Drug Lab Reports Per Capita Olympic Peninsula and King County1990 - 20129
Drug Labs Reported Per 1000 Population
Olympic Peninsula and King County
County
Meth Labs
Reported
1999 -2012
Population
2011
Labs/Per 1000
Population
2011
Clallam 37 72,000 0.51
Grays
Harbor 262 73,150 3.58
Jefferson 44 30,175 1.46
King 1,685 1,957,000 0.86
Kitsap 322 254500 1.27
Mason 232 61,450 3.78
Source: Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management
Figure HM-4 - Meth Labs Reported by Year10
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Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment
Areas at risk for hazardous materials transportation incidents lie along highways, pipelines, rivers, and seaport areas. These risks are compounded by natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, floods, and severe
storms). Each incident’s impact and resulting response depends on a multitude of interrelated variables that range from the quantity and specific characteristic of the material to the conditions of the release and area/population centers involved. The county Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) was established under the provisions of the State and Federal law (The Community Emergency Planning and Community Right-to- Know Act--
EPCRA). The purpose of the LEPC is to coordinate the development of emergency plans and procedures for dealing with a hazardous materials incident. The committee’s charter is to conduct hazard identification, vulnerability analysis, and risk management activities. Additionally, they are chartered to develop and maintain emergency response plans appropriate to hazardous materials based on the volumes and types of substances found in, or transported through their jurisdictions. The risk of both spills and clandestine drug labs and usage is increasing as the recent oil boom results in oil transportation for export and the advent of recreational drug laws encourages the development of a drug production industry in the rural areas.
Conclusion
The Hazardous Material Emergency Preparedness (HMEP) Grant of 1998 made it possible for Jefferson County to revise plans to address the mandates of the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act
(SARA) and EPCRA. For major marine oil and hazardous material spills, the Northwest Area Contingency Plan (ACP) will be
used for all responses. It combines the resources of the local, State, and Federal governments. Two Geographic Response Plans (GRPs) cover the shorelines of Jefferson County, specifically the Washington Outer Coast and Hood Canal/Admiralty Inlet. They include resource priorities, protection and clean-up strategies, and local logistical information.
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References – HAZARDOUS MATERIAL INCIDENT
1. “Hazardous Materials”, The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County
Department of Emergency Management, 2011, pp. 58-59. 2. “What are Hazardous Materials?”, About IHMM, Institute of Hazardous Materials Management, Accessed August, 2016. Available at: http://www.ihmm.org/about-ihmm/what-are-hazardous-materials 3. Ibid.
4. Figure 5.13-1 Total Spills Reported by County, “Hazardous Materials Profile”, Washington State
Hazard Mitigation Plan, Washington State Military Department, Emergency Management Division,
October 2010, Tab 5.13, p. 10.
5. Figure 5.13-0-4 County HazMat Facilities and Chemicals, “Hazardous Materials Profile”,
Washington State Hazard Mitigation Plan, Washington State Military Department, Emergency
Management Division, October 2010, Tab 5.13, p. 6.
6. “Hazardous Materials Profile”, Washington State Hazard Mitigation Plan, Washington State Military
Department, Emergency Management Division, October 2010, Tab 5.13, p. 11.
7. Figure 5.13-9 Clandestine Drug Lab and Dumps Reported by County, “Hazardous Materials
Profile”, Washington State Hazard Mitigation Plan, Washington State Military Department,
Emergency Management Division, October 2010, Tab 5.13, p. 11.
8. “Clandestine Drug Lab and Dump Site Cleanup Activity 1990 through 2012”, Programs,
Washington State Department of Ecology, CountyTable 1990 to 2012. Accessed August 2016.
Available at:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/spills/response/drug_labs/CountyTable1990%20to2012.pdf
9. “Drug Lab Reports Per Capita”, by Ken Horvath, Jefferson County Department of Emergency
Management, August 2016.
10. “Meth Labs Reported by Year”, Washington Department of Ecology, CountyTable 1990 to 2012.
Accessed August 2016. Available at:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/spills/response/drug_labs/CountyTable1990%20to2012.pdf
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Tables - HAZARDOUS MATERIAL INCIDENT
HM-1 Total Spills Reported by County for 2000 – 2007 HM-2 Drug Labs Reported per Capita for Olympic Peninsula and King County
Figures - HAZARDOUS MATERIAL INCIDENT
HM-1 Total Spills Reported by County for 2000 - 2007 HM-2 Facilities and Chemicals by County for 2012 HM-3 Cumulative Drug Labs and Dumps Reported 1999-2011 HM-4 Drug Labs Reported by Year 1999 - 2011
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