HomeMy WebLinkAboutA40 V6 Approved 2016 - Sect II - Natural Haz F-PJefferson County – City of Port Townsend Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016)
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FLOOD1
SUMMARY The Hazard: Flooding is the uncontrolled release of impounded water resulting that can affect life and property. Flooding may occur as an overflow of water from water bodies, such as a river, lake, or ocean, in which the water overtops or breaks levees, resulting in some of that water escaping its usual boundaries or it may occur due to an accumulation of rainwater on saturated ground in an area flood. 2 The National Flood Insurance Program defines flood as, “A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties (at least one of which is the policyholder's property) from:
• Overflow of inland or tidal waters; or
• Unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source; or
• Mudflow (liquid and flowing mud moving across surface); or
• Collapse or subsidence of land along the shore of a lake or similar body of water as a result of erosion or undermining caused by waves or currents of water exceeding anticipated cyclical levels that result in a flood as defined above.”3
Flooding can be caused by excessive precipitation causing rivers and lakes to overflow their banks; tidal floods, or flash floods can be caused by intensive short bursts of precipitation in areas that cannot absorb or retain the water. Previous Occurrences: Flooding is a frequent occurrence on the plains near the coasts. Between 1938 and 1966 (28 years), the Duckabush River flooded 26 times. Between 1931 and 1982 (51 years), the Dosewallips River flooded 23 times. In 2002, the flooding of Dosewallips changed the river course near Highway 101. In 2003, Dosewallips flooded the streets near Brinnon 3.5 feet5. In the same flood event, Duckabush flooded the
Fire District #4 Station6. In December 2014, the Duckabush flooded Fire District #4’s Station 4-2 again, resulting
in a $40,000 clean-up bill and $14,000 of damage to their apparatus7. In 2015, Jefferson County incurred nearly $1.6 million in road repair costs due to landslides and flooding in the
“West End.” Three hundred thousand was directly to flood damage to the Oil City Road.8 Table FL-1 lists all the Presidential Disaster Declarations for flooding in Jefferson County (RED) and adjacent counties (BLUE) from 1956 through July 2016.9 Adjacent counties have been included because there have been times when flooding and storm damage in adjacent counties were enough to warrant a Presidential Disaster Declaration for them, but were not high enough to do so in Jefferson County – even though the flooding and / or storms did not respect the county line. Probability of Future Events: High – The probability of severe winter storms in Jefferson County is 100%. Jefferson County’s climate does not normally get the severe cold resulting in blizzards, therefore, winter storms contain a lot of rain that often causes flooding. Natural Hazard Risk Rating: The average natural hazard risk rating for avalanches for all districts in Jefferson County was estimated at 19.9, which is right on the boundary for moderate risk.
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Table FL-1 Presidential Disaster Declarations for Flooding Jefferson County and Adjacent Counties (1956-2016)
EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
December 1964 Maj. #185 - Heavy rains/flooding
Asotin, Benton, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skamania, Snohomish, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima
January 1971 Maj. #300 - Heavy rains/melting snow/flooding
Columbia, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Skagit, Whatcom, Yakima
January 1972 Maj. #322 - Severe storms/flooding Asotin, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, Skamania, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whitman
January 1974
Maj. #414 - Severe
storms/ snowmelt/flooding
Asotin, Benton, Columbia, Ferry, Kitsap, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Thurston, Whitman, Yakima
December 1975 Maj. #492 - Severe storms/flooding Benton, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Whatcom, Yakima
December 1977 Maj. #545 - Severe storms/ mudslides/flooding
Benton, Clark, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Pacific, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whitman, Yakima
December 1979 Maj. #612 - Storms/high tides / mudslides / flooding
Clallam, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Mason, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
January 1986 Maj. #757 - Severe
storms/flooding
Clallam, Jefferson, King
January 1990 Maj. #852 - Severe
storms/flooding
Benton, Grays Harbor, King, Lewis, Pierce, Thurston,
Wahkiakum
November 1990 Maj. #883 - Severe storms/flooding Chelan, Clallam, Grays, Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom, Yakima
December 1990 Maj. #896 - Storms/high wind/ flooding Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
November 1995 Major #1079 - Flooding and Wind (Nov - Dec 95) Declared Jan 3, 1996
Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom, Yakima
February 1996 Major #1100 - Flooding
Declared February 9, 1996
Adams, Asotin, Benton, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Pierce, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Thurston,
Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima, and Yakima Indian Reservation
December 1996 Major #1159 - Winter Storm (Ice, snow, flooding) Declared January 17, 1997
Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston, Walla Walla, Whatcom, Yakima
March 1997 Major #1172 - Flooding Declared April 2, 1997 Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lincoln, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Pend Oreille, Stevens
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EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
January 27 to February 4, 2006
DR 1641 Severe Storms, Flooding, Tidal Surge, Landslides, and Mudslides
Clallam, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, Kitsap, Mason, Pacific, Pend Oreille, San Juan, Snohomish, and Wahkiakum Counties
November 2-11, 2006
DR 1671 Severe
Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and
Mudslides
All counties in the State of Washington are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
December 14-15, 2006 DR 1682 Severe Winter Storm, Landslides, and Mudslides
All counties in the State of Washington are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
December 1 - 17, 2007 DR 1743 Severe Storms and Flooding
Clallam, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston and Wahkiakum
Counties.
December 2008 / January 2009 DR 1817 Severe Winter Storm, Landslides, Mudslides, and Flooding
Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Columbia, Cowlitz, Franklin, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whatcom, Whitman, and Yakima counties.
March 2012 DR 4056 Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
Clallam, Grays Harbor, King, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, and Wahkiakum
March 2014 ED 3370 Flooding and
Mudslides
State of Washington
January 2016 DR 4249 Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
Chelan, Clallam, Garfield, Island, Jefferson, Kittitas, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties
February 2016 DR 4253 Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding,
Landslides, Mudslides, and a Tornado
Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Skamania, and Wahkiakum counties
Brinnon Flooding – February 2015 Photo by Keppie Keplinger
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Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment
Definition Of all the hazards that affect Jefferson
County, floods are the most common and
cause the most property damage. There
are basically three types of floods possible
in Jefferson County.
River building floods: River building
floods are caused by heavy, prolonged
rain, melting snow, or both. Prolonged
heavy rains and high freezing levels are
the common cause for river flooding in
Jefferson County. Runoff from the melting of
low elevation snow often contributes to
these floods. The spring runoff of the
mountain snowpack also drives some river
flooding in Jefferson County, especially
during times of spring rains.
2. Tidal floods: Tidal floods occur when high tides, strong winds, heavy swell, and low
atmospheric pressure combine to produce flooding.
3. Flash floods: Although possible, flash floods are not as common in Jefferson County as they
are in Eastern Washington. Flash floods are characterized by a very rapid quick rise of the water
level in a small river, stream or dry wash. In the most extreme case, a flash flood is a literal wall of
water moving down a steep canyon or ravine. The brief intense rainfall from a thunderstorm is
usually the cause of a flash flood.
Flooding in Jefferson County occurs in the winter months. Coastal flooding is caused by storm surges which result from high spring tides and strong winter storm winds. Newspapers have reported wave run up during heavy wind storms in Port Townsend. The rivers swell during winter months when heavy rains and snowmelt produce the highest runoff flows. The greatest and most frequent flooding occurs at river mouths where the high river waters are held back by concurrent ocean water surges and heavy rains characteristic of winter storms.10
The frequency of major flooding is well-correlated with precipitation levels. Figure FL-1 on the following page shows 100-year 24-hour precipitation data. The high precipitation areas, shown in blue, green and yellow on Figure FL-1 include all of the counties with a history of frequent major flood
events.11 As one can see from the map, there are locations in Jefferson County where there would have to be a
real toad-strangler of a rain to exceed a 100-year event. The Olympic Mountains keep the rain on the Pacific side of the mountains and create such locations as the Hoh Rain Forest, which gets 12 – 14 feet of rain each year.
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Figure FL-1 – 24-Hour Precipitation Totals that would Qualify as a 100 Year Event11
Floods on the rivers of Eastern Jefferson County, specifically the Duckabush, Dosewallips, and both the Big and Little Quilcene Rivers, generally are a combination of two types—the river building floods with help
twice each day from the tidal floods. These rivers are short rivers with steep sided banks. Tidal changes from Hood Canal combined with increased runoff from the Olympics have produced a history of frequent flooding. Occurring principally during the winter months, flooding has inflicted loss of life and
property, damage to infrastructure and has been the cause for suspension of
economic activity in communities near the Big and Little Quilcene, Duckabush, and Dosewallips Rivers in Eastern Jefferson County.
Eastern Jefferson County has short, steep rivers that rise quickly
and recede quickly. The flood plains are alluvial in nature and are greatly affected by tidal action. Southern winds tend to hold water against the shores compounding the effects.
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Most floods are short term,
however the potential for extreme damage is possible
In Western Jefferson County, floods on the Hoh, Clearwater, Bogachiel, and
Quinault Rivers have damaged roads and bridges causing significant expense to the County to constantly repair and maintain them. Over the last 10-years, the average annual cost to the county for repairs due to
flood and landslide damage has been $750,000.12
Rivers in Western Jefferson County are highly erosive to the low riverbanks of the flood plains. Many acres of farm and timberland disappear annually.
Road and bridge washouts on Highway 101 in the “West End” have necessitated sandbagging and other emergency measures for members of the Hoh Tribe residing on reservation lands at the end of the Lower Hoh Road.
Much of the recent development in the County has occurred either in or near flood plains. This development
increases the likelihood of flood damages in two ways. First, new developments near a flood plain add structures and people in flood areas. Secondly, new construction alters surface water flows by diverting
water to new courses or increases the amount of water that runs off impermeable pavement and roof surfaces. This second effect diverts waters to places that were previously safe from flooding.
Floods have regularly occurred throughout Western Washington. Principally during the winter and early spring months, Jefferson County’s flooding typically follows long rainy periods and / or rapid warming when Olympic Mountain snowpack melts rapidly into rivers and streams on all
sides of the mountain slopes. That being said, Figure FL-2 shows that Jefferson County is not among the counties considered most vulnerable to flooding13.
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Figure FL-2 – Washington Counties Most Vulnerable to Flooding13
Jefferson County is not considered at high risk or having a high vulnerability to floods because most of the County’s critical assets are not in flood zones. There are pockets, however of vulnerability near river flood zones. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the following gallery of figures (Table FL-2) extracted from the Washington State Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan shows evidence for the above conclusions:
• The dollar value of assets at risk from flooding is less compared to other counties
(Figure FL-314).
• Frequency of flooding is moderate compared to other counties (Figure FL-415);
• Jefferson County only has 2.9% of its land area at risk for riverine flooding (Figure FL-516).
• Washington State Watershed Flood Risk Map (Figure FL-617).
• Jefferson County only has three NFIP categorized repetitive loss properties and no Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) properties within its borders,
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Jurisdictions most vulnerable to flooding were determined by the State by scoring each county based on
the above factors: frequency of flooding that causes major damage, the percentage of the county in floodplain, the number of flood insurance policies currently in effect, the number of flood insurance claims paid, the number of repetitive flood loss properties, and the number of severe repetitive loss
properties. A maximum value of 28 points was possible (King County received this score). Jefferson County received 7 points. The entire table and analysis can be found in the “Flood Hazard Profile” of the Washington State Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan at http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-
PLAN/Flood_Hazard_Profile.pdf.
The ten counties with the highest score are considered most vulnerable to flooding and are highlighted in Table FL-2. Note that county totals include properties in the unincorporated areas of the County as well as the properties inside of the limits of the incorporated cities and towns within those Counties.
Why is this important? It is not just a “humble brag” to say that Jefferson County should be recognized as among the top 10 counties most vulnerable to flooding (assuming that is something one wants to brag
about). It is a recognition that in a major flood disaster Jefferson County, because of its relatively small population, will not be among the counties getting emergency resources quickly because those resources will be focused on more densely populated areas. Consequently, local authorities have to develop strategies that rely on resilience, self-reliance, and a trained-to-handle disasters population.
Center Valley flooding worst in 10 years, Short says Source: Leader March 16, 2016
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Table FL-2 – Gallery of Relative Criteria for Identifying Counties Most Vulnerable to Flooding
Figure FL-3 - The Modeled Value of Flood Damage14
The modeling of total flood losses by the State predicts a loss of $89,670,000 for Jefferson County, which puts it
among the least affected counties on an absolute basis. However, if you divide the Total Loses by the population
of the county for that year to create a “misery index”, by the modeling, Jefferson County would have a higher per
capita loss than Skagit, Snohomish, and Thurston counties, all of which are listed as in the ten most vulnerable
counties. Source: Washington State Emergency Management Division Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Figure FL-4 – Frequency of Major Flooding15
Source: Washington State Emergency Management Division Hazard Mitigation Plan
Jefferson County Sheriff’s Car Caught in Flood Source: PBStwimg.com
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Figure FL-5 – Percentage of the County in the Riverine Floodplain16
Source: Washington State Emergency Management Division Hazard Mitigation Plan
Although Jefferson County has less than 3% of its land in a riverine floodplain, there are two factors which argue
for the county’s flood vulnerability:
• Nearly all of its population centers are in coastal floodplains to one degree or another,
• The majority of the county’s economic engine is in or near the floodplains, and
• Significant critical assets are within or adjacent to the costal floodplains.
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Figure FL-6 – Washington State Watershed Flood Risk Map17
Source: Washington State Emergency Management Division Hazard Mitigation Plan
In 2012, the Washington Department of Ecology assessed flood risk based on the watershed availability in the
western portion of the state.18 Watersheds in the Puget Sound were considered high risk because the area is
so heavily populated. Three risk factors were used: population density (60%), NFIP Policies and Claims (30%)
and Floodplain Area (10%). Port Townsend was included in the Puget Sound sector, which was the second
highest risk due to Seattle and its population.
End of Gallery
NFIP
In 1968, Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to help provide a means for property owners to financially protect themselves. The NFIP offers flood insurance to homeowners, renters, and business owners if their community participates in the NFIP. Participating communities agree
to adopt and enforce ordinances that meet or exceed FEMA requirements to reduce the risk of flooding.19 The following NFIP statistics were used in determining the vulnerability ranking of Washington counties:
• Number of Flood Insurance Policies in Effect
• Number of Flood Claims Paid
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• Number of Repetitive Loss Properties, and
• Number of Severe Repetitive Loss Properties. Repetitive Loss Properties – “A Repetitive Loss (RL) property is any insurable building for which two or more claims of more than $1,000 were paid by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) within any rolling ten-year period, since 1978. A RL property may or may not be currently insured by the NFIP. Currently there are over 122,000 RL properties nationwide.”20
Severe Repetitive Loss Properties (SRL) – “The SRL group consists of any NFIP-insured residential property that has met at least 1 of the following paid flood loss criteria since 1978, regardless of ownership: • 4 or more separate claim payments of more than $5,000 each (including building and contents); or • 2 or more separate claim payments (building payments only) where the total of the payments exceeds the current value of the property.
In either case, two of the claim payments must have occurred within 10 years of each other. Multiple losses at the same location within 10 days of each other are counted as 1 loss, with the payment amounts added together.”21 Only a small percentage of the homes in mapped flood plains are insured against flood loss. Many homeowners who live in flood plains carry fire insurance, however they do not carry flood insurance.
Only about 20 to 30 percent of the homes in floodplains have insurance for flood losses. Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend are both participants in the NFIP program. Their statistics are presented in their community profiles and below in “Risk Map Assessment.” RISKMAP ASSESSMENT RiskMAP replaced the Flood Map Modernization program in 2010. Flood Map Modernization was established in 1997 to digitally update FEMA flood maps. Under the Map Moderations Program, several counties in the Washington were mapped, providing countywide Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps
(DFIRMs). Jefferson County’s turn came in 2014, with the Preliminary DFIRMS available for comment in February 2016. Figure FL-7 below shows the scope of the DFIRMS under development.
Additionally, the Risk Map project does Hazus simulations and pulls the latest NFIP statistics for the area being studied. Table FL-3 provides the NFIP community characteristics for the Jefferson County area as of December, 2015.22 Table FL-3 – Community Characteristics
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Figure FL-7: FEMA 100-year and 500-year Flood Zones in Jefferson County
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Table FL-4 presents building value and percentage of buildings located within the floodplain of the community.23
Table FL-4 – Assessment of Special Flood Hazard Area
It should be noted that there are a number of critical structures that are located slightly outside the floodplain, based on maps – but not based on Mother Nature’s predilections. Figure FL-8 is an illustration of one of risks that do not get picked up in generic simulations – one of two power substations that serves the Quimper Peninsula is a few feet outside a flood zone.24 If a tsunami or flood takes out that substation, the Quimper Peninsula has the potential to be without power for months. Figure FL-8 - PUD Substation Near Flood Zone
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Climate Change
The NOPRCD report estimates rain events in which rainfall exceeds one inch in 24 hours
will increase by 13% by the 2050’s.25 Table FL-5 copies the Precipitations: Trends and
Extremes table from the NOPRCD report.26 Table FL-6 provides the probability that the mean sea level will reach or exceed projected Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) tidal
datum by selected years, including 2050.27
Figures FL-9 and Fl-10 are maps of the probabilistic sea level rise / coastal flood risk for Port Townsend for 2050.28,29 It is interesting to note that, based on the Annual Extreme
Storm Flooded Areas in 2050 map, the frequency of flooding will increase, and critical
infrastructure that one would expect to be in a higher flood zone are shown to be threatened more than they are today. Specifically, the Port Townsend Paper Mill, Life
Care Center of Port Townsend, and the Kearney Street power substation all appear to
be inside the predicted flood zone due to rising sea levels.
Table FL-5 – Precipitations: Trends and Extremes26
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Table FL-6 - Relative Sea Level Projection for Coastal Communities27
Relative sea level (third column) and annual extreme coastal flood projections (right column, which includes
sea level rise) for the coastal communities of the Strait of Juan de Fuca relative to the contemporary Mean
Higher High Water (MHHW) tidal datum. The third column of the table provides the probability (in percent)
that mean sea level will be at or above a certain elevation (in feet) above contemporary MHHW by 2030,
2050 or 2100. The right column of the table provides the probability in a given year that the largest single
coastal flooding event will reach a given elevation (in feet) above the contemporary MHHW. This column
reflects how storm surge amounts vary at locations across the peninsula. Source: NOPRCD Report
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Figure FL-9 – Sea Level Inundation Area In 2050, Port Townsend28
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Figure FL-10 – Annual Extreme Storm Flooded Areas in 2050, Port Townsend29
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Conclusion
Many homes and small businesses located in flood plains are vulnerable to damage. Flood damage to croplands, structures, land resources, roads and utilities exceed damage cause by all other natural hazards in Jefferson County. Building in floodplains must be regulated to ensure that floodplain development is limited to utilization such as parks, golf courses, farmlands, etc., to help ensure that land use is maximized while the potential for damages is minimized.
Jefferson County developed the “Jefferson County Flood Damage Prevention Ordinance, No. 18-1120-95” to better regulate and direct development in flood plain areas. It regulates planning, construction, operation, maintenance and improvements in these areas for both public and private
endeavors. The ordinance helps ensure that work is properly planned, constructed, operated and maintained to avoid adversely influencing the regimen of the stream. It provides a sound basis for planning to ensure the security of life, health, and property damage by floodwaters in floodplain areas.
The public should be made aware and reminded of hazardous areas and be provided information on flood insurance, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Local plans should reflect warning, evacuation, housing and other emergency procedures. Plans must also include and emphasize the need to be aware of potential disease, hazardous material releases, or debris that may affect floodwaters. In years past, people living on or near rivers have taken it upon themselves to remove gravel deposits thus helping to maintain river and stream channels. As greater emphasis has been placed on maintaining salmon spawning areas, this type of activity is now restricted and requires hydraulic permits for any activity in the riverbeds. As a result, deposits of gravel have built up over the years, and the river channels have become increasingly shallow, exacerbating the chances of
flooding. Low levees constructed along several rivers in eastern Jefferson County have failed in the past. Although levees have been reinforced on the Dosewallips River, many levees on the mouth of the Big Quilcene River are the same elevation as the riverbed.
The National Weather Service has extensive weather monitoring systems and usually provides adequate and timely warning. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides
coverage of the Puget Sound area, but currently does not cover the western portion of the county. N.O.A.A. WEATHER RADIO (NWR) is a source of initial warnings and alerts. It is a nation-wide network that broadcasts continuous weather information and emergency alerts - including relays from the Emergency Alert System (EAS).
The United States Army Corps
of Engineers, under PL 84-89,
has the authority to assist public
entities in flood fighting and
rescue operations as well as
protecting, repairing and restoring
federally constructed flood
control infrastructure
Work on Dosewallips River. Photo by Bob Hamlin
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References - Flood
1. “Flood”, The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2011, pp. 24-31. 2. “Flood”, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood 3. “Flood Hazard Profile”, Washington State Enhanced Mitigation Plan, Washington Military Department, Emergency Management Division, May 2013, Tab 5.6, p.2. Available at: http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-PLAN/Flood_Hazard_Profile.pdf 4. Ibid. 2,1. 5. Flood Protection Information, Jefferson County Department of Community Development, Jefferson County Website, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/flood.htm 6. Ibid. 7. Email from Patrick Nicholson, Chief, Jefferson County Fire District 4, February 11, 2015. 8. Email from Monte Reinders, Director of Jefferson County Public Works, April 27, 2016 9. Subset from Major Disaster Declarations for Washington 1956-2016, “Multi-jurisdictional Community Profile”, Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016). 10. Ibid. 5,1. 11. Ibid. 3,12. 12. Ibid. 8,1. 13. Ibid. 3,2. 14. Ibid. 3,33. 15. Flood Risk Maps, Washington Department of Ecology, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/floods/riskmap_maps.html 16. Ibid. 3,36. 17. Ibid. 3,57. 18. Ibid. 19. About the NFIP, National Flood Insurance Program, Floodsmart.com, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/pages/about/nfip_overview.jsp 20. National Flood Insurance Program: Frequently Asked Questions
Repetitive Loss, FEMA.gov, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.fema.gov/txt/rebuild/repetitive_loss_faqs.txt 21. Guidance for Severe Repetitive Loss Properties, FEMA.gov, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://www.fema.gov/pdf/nfip/manual201205/content/20_srl.pdf
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22. Risk Report for Jefferson County including the City of Port Townsend and the Hoh Tribe, FEMA, February 2016, p. 6. Available at: http://www.jeffcoeoc.org/documents/JeffersonCounty_RiskReport_Final_508.pdf 23. Ibid., 7.
24. PUD Substation Adjacent to Flood Zones, Ken Horvath, Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, September 5, 2016
25. Petersen, S., Bell, J., Miller, I., Jayne, C., Dean, K., Fougerat, M., 2015. Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula. A Project of the North Olympic Peninsula Resource Conservation & Development Council and the Washington Department of Commerce, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency. p. 18. Available:
www.noprcd.org 26. Ibid. 27. Ibid., 29. 28. Ibid., 30. 29. Ibid.
Tables - Flood
FL-1 Presidential Disaster Declarations for Flooding in Jefferson County and Adjacent Counties (1956-2016) FL-2 Gallery of Relative Criteria for Identifying Counties Most Vulnerable to Flooding
FL-3 Community Characteristics
FL-4 Assessment of Special Flood Hazard Area
FL-5 Precipitation: Trends and Extremes FL-6 Relative Sea Level Projection for Coastal Communities
Figures - Flood
FL-1 24-Hour Precipitation Totals that would Qualify as a 100 Year Event FL-2 Washington Counties Most Vulnerable to Flooding FL-3 Modeled Value of Flood Damage FL-4 Frequency of Major Flooding FL-5 Percentage of the County in the Floodplain FL-6 Washington State Watershed Flood Risk Map FL-7 FEMA 100-year and 500-year Flood Zones in Jefferson County FL-8 PUD Substation Near Flood Zone FL-9 Sea Level Inundation Area for Port Townsend, WA in 2050 FL-10 Annual Extreme Storm Flooded Area for Port Townsend, WA in 2050
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HEAT WAVE (EXTENDED) 1
SUMMARY The Hazard: The National Weather Service defines a heat wave as a “prolonged excessive heat/humidity episode” in which its Heat Index (HI) is expected to exceed 105o for at least two consecutive days2. Severe heat waves have caused catastrophic crop failures, thousands of deaths from hyperthermia, and widespread power outages due to increased use of air conditioning. A heat wave is considered extreme weather, and a danger because heat and sunlight may overheat the human body3.
“In 2015, 45 people died nation-wide as a result of extreme heat, up dramatically from the 2014 total of 20 but down from the 92 fatalities in 2013. This number is well below the 10-year average for heat related fatalities, 113. In 2015, the most dangerous place to be was in a permanent home, likely with little or no air conditioning, where 15 people died4. As in the past, extreme heat most strongly affected adults aged 50+, with 33 deaths (73%). Sadly, the next highest age-range was children 0-9, many left in vehicles. Once again, more males, 32 (71%), than females, 13 (29%), were killed by heat.5”
Impacts and Effects:
• Potential deaths due to Heat Related Illness (HRI)
• Increase in illness and accidents due to HRI
• Potential illness and death of commercial livestock as well as domestic pets
• Adverse impact on agriculture, especially dry land farms and grazing lands
• Increased danger of fires
• Imposition of water conservation measures
• Shortages of water for firefighting
• Increased prices for local produce
• Economic impact due to loss of sales from people sheltering from heat instead of being out in the community
• Economic impact of lost work-time due to HRI Previous Occurrences: There have been three outdoor-work heat related deaths in Washington during the years 2005 and 2006.
Probability of Future Events: High – Climatic changes may be impacting the frequency and duration
of extended heat events on the Olympic Peninsula.
Natural Hazard Risk Rating: The average natural hazard risk rating for heat wave for all districts in
Jefferson County was estimated at 13.65, which would be considered low, approaching moderate. Definition
The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a heat wave as a “prolonged excessive heat/humidity episode” in which its Heat Index (HI) is expected to exceed 105o for at least two consecutive days.
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A definition based on Frich et al.'s Heat Wave Duration Index is that a heat wave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by
5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961–19906. Heat related illness is a well-known, recognized hazard in the outdoor work environment, as well as a threat
to the day-to-day functioning of people without the means of sheltering from the heat. Heat Related Illnesses (HRI) include heat fatigue, heat rash, fainting, heart cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Aside from these disorders, heat poses an additional threat of injuries due to accidents caused by heat related fatigue, dizziness, and disorientation. The Heat Index devised by the NWS gives an accurate measure of how hot it really feels when the relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature. Since HI values were predicated on shady, light wind conditions, exposure to full sunshine can increase values by 15 degrees. Figure HW-1, below, presents a graphic representation of the heat index7. Possible heat related disorders are: Heat Index 130o or higher: Heat stroke/sunstroke highly likely with continued exposure.
Heat Index 105o - 130o: Sunstroke, heat cramps or heat exhaustion likely, and heatstroke possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
Heat Index 90o - 105o: Sunstroke, heat cramps and heat exhaustion possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity. Heat Index 80o - 90o: Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
NWS Alerts: The National Weather Service tracks heat waves by reporting stations, of which Seattle is the closest to Jefferson County. It issues heat advisories and excessive heat warnings based on the following criteria: Heat Advisory - Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days8. Excessive Heat Watch - Issued by the National Weather Service when heat indices in excess of 105ºF (41ºC) during the day combined with nighttime low temperatures of 80ºF (27ºC) or higher are forecast to occur for two consecutive days9.
Excessive Heat Warning - Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following criteria: heat index of at least 105°F for more than 3 hours per day for 2 consecutive days, or heat index more than 115°F for
any period of time10.
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Figure HW-1 – NOAA National Weather Service Heat Index Chart7
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave
Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016)
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HISTORY OF HEAT WAVES IN JEFFERSON COUNTY
The following incidents were gleaned from local news sources and histories of Jefferson County:
Mar 2001-Dec 2001 - On March 14, 2001, Gov. Gary Locke authorized the Department of Ecology to
declare a statewide drought emergency; Washington was the first Northwest state to make such a declaration, which remained in effect until December 31, 2001.11
2002-2003- Two of the driest summers on record—one of five driest winters in past 100 years. Port Townsend Paper Corporation curtailed some operations, and fishing was halted on rivers on the Olympic Peninsula 2006 – Multiple heat waves of 3-4 days each in June, July, August, and culminating in September during
Seattle’s Bumbershoot festival. August 2008 – Three days in which heat alerts were issued by the National Weather Service.
July – August 2009 – Triple digit heat from Seattle to Medford, Oregon on July 28 – 29.12 August 18th – 20th 2016 – Multiple days of over-100 degree temperatures in the counties surrounding Jefferson County. Silverdale, Sequim, Seattle, etc. were all under “excessive heat warnings.”
HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
During the period from 1936 through 1975, nearly 20,000 people were killed in the United States by the
effects of heat and solar radiation. In the heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. From 1999 to 2010, a total of 7,415 deaths in the United States, an average of 618 per year, were associated with
exposure to excessive natural heat.13 The highest yearly total of heat-related deaths (1,050) was in
1999 and the lowest (295) in 2004. Approximately 68% of heat-related deaths were among males.
During the period from 1994 through 2007, three people died directly as a result of heat exposure in Washington. None have been recorded in Jefferson County.
The geography of Jefferson County mitigates its exposure to extreme heat because it is heavily wooded, surrounded by significant waterways (the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Puget Sound), and is protected by the Olympic Mountains. Even so, the moderate conditions deter people from purchasing air conditioners, and nearly a third of the population is over 65-years old.14 Even though extremely high temperatures are generally of short duration in Jefferson County, the high proportion of vulnerable populations, including
the elderly, small children, and chronic invalids, dictate that local governmental, emergency, and public health officials are sensitive to heat conditions and take appropriate preventive measures.
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Climate Change
Future projections predict a slight increase in days over 90oF (+8 days) for the Pacific Northwest (PNW), with a limited increase in days over 95oF on the Olympic Peninsula.15
Conclusion
Heat-related deaths state-wide will increase as average yearly temperatures increase. More frequent days over 100 °F (38 °C) will cause several problems for humans, including heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. The amount of heat waves has increased in the state of WA over the past 20 years. The average cost for each mortality from heat related deaths is $6,250.16 Due to its favorable location and geography, Jefferson County has a low probability of experiencing the significant heat wave related issues that the rest of the State will face. Nevertheless, Washington’s Department of Labor and Industries (L&I) has issued a rule, with which Jefferson County employers must comply, for employers having one or more employees performing work outdoors to:
• Establish and implement written procedures to prevent the occurrence of HRI;
• Provide and make accessible enough drinking water when hazards are present;
• Have formalized procedures in place to respond to employees showing signs of HRI; and
• Provide effective HRI prevention training to all employees.
The NWS will initiate alert procedures when the HI is expected to exceed 105°- 1 10°F (depending on
local climate) for at least two consecutive days. The procedures are:
• Include HI values in zone and city forecasts.
• Issue Special Weather Statements and/or Public Information Statements presenting a detailed discussion of
o Extent of the hazard including HI values
o Who is most at risk
o Safety rules for reducing the risk.
• Assist state/local health officials in preparing Civil Emergency Messages in severe heat waves. Meteorological information from Special Weather Statements will be included as well as more
detailed medical information, advice, and names and telephone numbers of health officials.
• Release to the media and over NOAAs own Weather Radio all of the above information.
Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend are in compliance with the L&I rule, and local civil, public health, and emergency management authorities are cognizant of the issues and prepared to issue warnings and to react to stress indicators within the population.
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References – HEAT WAVE (Extended)
1. “Heat Wave (Extended)”, Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend Hazard Mitigation Plan, Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2009, pp. 118-120. 2. “Heat Wave”, NOAA’s National Weather Service Glossary, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h 3. “Heat Wave”, Wikipedia, Accessed August, 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave 4. “2015 Heat Related Fatalities”, NOAA Hazard Statistics – 2015, Report generated on 5/13/2016. Available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/heat15.pdf 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid. 3. 7. Ibid. 3. 8. “Heat Advisory”, NOAA’s National Weather Service Glossary, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h 9. “Excessive Heat Watch”, NOAA’s National Weather Service Glossary, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=e 10. Ibid. 11. Drought emergency declared in Washington, USA Today.com, 03/14/2001 12. 2009 Pacific Northwest Heatwave, Wikipedia, Accessed 2016, Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Pacific_Northwest_heat_wave#Temperature_Statistics 13. National Vital Statistics System. Mortality public use data files, 1999–2009. Available at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm 14. Population Age 65 Years and Older by County, 2015 Population Trends, Forecasting & Research Division, Washington Office of Financial Management, September 2015, p.42. 15. Kunkel, K., Stevens, L., Stevens, S., Liquiang, S., Janssen, E., Wuebbles, D., Redmond, R., Dobson, J.G., 2013 Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. national Climate Assessment, NOAA Tech-nical Report NESDIS142-6. 16. Climate Change in Washington – Human Health, Wikipedia, Accessed 2016, Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Washington#Human_health
Figures - HEAT WAVE (Extended)
HW-1 NOAA NWS Heat Index Chart
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LANDSLIDES1
SUMMARY
The Hazard: Landslide is the sliding movement of masses of loosened rock and soil down a hillside or
slope. Landslide causes depend on rock type, precipitation, seismic shaking, land development and zoning practices, soil composition, moisture, and slope steepness. It can be fast moving, such as the March 2014 Oso Landslide in Snohomish county, Washington, or slow moving such as the inches per day landslide in
Jackson, Wyoming in April 2014.2 Impacts and Effects:
• Loss of life
• Loss of homes and businesses
• Loss of public buildings
• Damage or complete loss of bridges
• Interruption of the transportation infrastructure
• Damage and interruption to utilities
• Destruction by covering of clam and oyster beds
• Damage to critical transportation infrastructure
• Damage or loss of recreation facilities
• Loss of jobs due to damaged equipment and facilities
• River and streams seek new channels affecting property values and economic development opportunities
• Damage to salmon habitat and salmon stream restoration projects Previous Occurrences: Winter storms in December 2007 resulted in multiple landslides, one of which moved a house off its foundation in the Brinnon area. In January of 2009, a massive landslide in adjoining Clallam County severely damaged State Route 112 for a length of 500 feet, and resulting in its closure for weeks before it was safe enough for crews to get close enough to fully assess the damage.
It is nearly an annual event to have landslides take out a section of county road in the West end of Jefferson County. The Upper Hoh Road, Quinault South Shore Road, Undie Road and Oil City Road have all had pieces taken out over the past few years. During the period from 2010 thru 2015, the range of cost to repair
roads damaged by landslides was from $600,000 to $1,181,000. The average for that period was $742,000.3 Probability of Future Events: High – Jefferson County experiences multiple winter storms each year
that have the potential to saturate soils and precipitate landslides in the hilly topography of the county.
Natural Hazard Risk Rating: The average natural hazard risk rating for landslides for all districts in Jefferson County was estimated at 20.5, which would be considered moderate.
Definition
Landslide is the sliding movement of masses of loosened rock and soil down a hillside or slope. Landslide causes depend on rock type, precipitation, seismic shaking, land development and zoning practices, soil composition, moisture, and slope steepness.
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History of Landslides in Jefferson County4
Landslides are a common hazard in Jefferson County. Most recent records indicate that earth movement is
associated with inclement weather, such as heavy rains, saturated ground and strong winds that loosen tree roots. Slides have been a problem over the years on the road between Port Hadlock and Port Ludlow. During the storm of January 1997, slides occurred along Discovery Bay, Cape George, Mats Mats, Paradise Bay, Shine, South Point, Coyle, Quilcene Bay, and Brinnon in the eastern part of the county. In the western part of the county, slides occurred in the Hoh, Clearwater, and Quinault River drainage areas. Evidence indicates that large land movements have occurred from past earthquakes such as the sunken forest off Point Wilson along the South Whidbey Fault. In more recent history, a landslide along Highway 20 at Eaglemount in the 1970s took out the road to Discovery Bay, covered the railroad tracks, and caused a derailment of rail cars carrying hazardous materials. Highway 101 has been washed out numerous times where the Hoh and the Bogachiel Rivers have undercut the hillside after heavy rains and snowpack melts. With the addition of water from the rain and runoff, these rivers have had a long history of eroding their banks causing the slopes to slide. The typical scenario is that heavy storms cause rivers and creeks to overflow and undercut nearby roads. The roads then give way, often destabilizing the land above the road, and causing larger landslides. In December 2007, landslides from heavy rains moved a house off its foundation in Brinnon. At the same time, over 1000 feet of the Hoh Road in west Jefferson County were damaged, resulting in its closure for six months. The Hoh Road is a significant access-way to the Hoh Rain Forest in the Olympic National Park. In November 2009, the Dosewallips Road, which runs parallel to the Dosewallips River near Brinnon, experienced a landslide that took out a section of road and required a local disaster declaration to effect emergency repairs. In March 2013, a landslide that ran 1000 feet along Whidbey Island jutted 300 feet into the ocean and raised
the beach by 30 feet.5 The Whidbey News Times reported it as displacing 5.3 million cubic feet of earth or the equivalent of 40,000 dump trucks.6 Although not in Jefferson County, this type of landslide in the right spot on Whidbey Island could create a tsunami that would hit the Fort Worden Beach and Port Townsend Bay. Figure LS-1, below, shows the before and after of the landslide.7
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Figure LS-1 – Before and After the Ledgewood-Bonair Landslide7
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Hazard Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment
The map (Figure LS-1) below shows that Jefferson County is considered among the counties that are most vulnerable to landslides.8 This is because of the significant Pacific Coastline, the Olympic
Mountains, and the Puget lowlands that are part of our geography. Figure LS-2 amplifies on this by overlaying previous landslide locations on the premise that the locations of known landslides are at-risk for future ones.9 Figure LS-1 – Areas Most Vulnerable to Landslide5
Source: Washington State Hazard Mitigation Plan (2009)
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Figure LS-2 – Counties Vulnerable to Landslides9
Source: Washington State Hazard Mitigation Plan (2012)
In addition to the shoreline conditions, Jefferson County is plagued by the stealth landslides of roads being undercut by rivers overflowing their banks, particularly along the Dosewallips and the Hoh Rivers. These are stealth landslides because they only make the local news, and are not significant enough for emergency
declarations. Even so, Jefferson County Public Works averages $750,000 per year on projects to rebuild sections of road lost to landslides during the rainy season.
Slides in Jefferson County range in size from thin masses of soil of a few yards deep to deep seated bedrock slides many yards wide. Slides are commonly categorized by the “form of initial failure”, but they may travel in a variety of forms along their paths. The travel rate may change in velocity from a few inches per month to many feet per second depending on the slope, material, and water content. The recognition of ancient dormant slide masses is important because landslides can be reactivated by earthquakes or unusually wet winters. Sinkholes can develop unexpectedly and cause damage to roadways and private property.
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Brinnon Mud Slide – February 2015 Source: Jefferson County Public Works
Figure LS-3 shows the landslide susceptibility in East Jefferson County.10 The scale is set for readability in this document, but it masks how vulnerable the shorelines are. In grid 27N1E, for example, getting closer in allows one to see that there have been two slides and multiple areas marked as “High” hazard. These do not show up well in the document. Anyone can get online at the Jefferson County Maps dialog and drill down to find the natural hazards for their own property. A direct link to the Environmentally Sensitive Areas map is: http://maps.co.jefferson.wa.us/Website/mspub/viewer.htm?mapset=esa
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Figure LS-3 Landslide Risk in East Jefferson County10
Table LS-1 lists landslides that have impacted Jefferson County, including some in adjacent counties.11 The table is a subset of a DNR table that covers all landslides of consequence throughout the state. Since the scope of this document is Jefferson County, we deleted the line items for those landslides that did not have a direct impact on Jefferson County – either through direct damage or blocking major access routes.
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Table LS-1 Significant Landslides that Directly Affected Jefferson County11
Significant Deep-Seated Landslides in Washington State – 1984 to 2014
Landslide Name Date Location Area Volume Comments Fatalities Direct Costs
(millions in 2014 $)
References
Ledgewood– Bonair (Whidbey Island)
Mar. 27, 2013 Island Co. 12 acres; 900 ft wide; 700 ft long
~200,000 yd3 Small portion of a larger landslide complex, ~1.5 mi long, ~11,000 years old; 35 homes evacuated when landslide occurred; 20 homes still at risk, either through structural damage or loss of property.
0 Slaughter, Steven; Sarikhan, Isabelle; Polenz, Michael; Walsh, Tim, 2013, Quick report for the Ledgewood–Bonair landslide, Whidbey Island, Island County, Washington: Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources Quick Report, 7 p. [http://www.dnr.wa.gov/Publications/ger_qr_whidb i l d l d lid 2013 df] Rockcrusher Hill
(U.S. 101 MP 72.6)
2006 Grays Harbor Co. 1,500 ft long; 400 ft wide 0.5 million yd3 Ongoing deformation with acceleration in 2006 resulted in costly temporary repair (that has now failed) and now requires frequent repairs to keep highway open. Threatens severing US 101, which would require ~50-mile-long detour. Estimated $7 million repair programmed for 2015.
2 WSDOT, 2007, SR 101 MP 72.6 landslide– geotechnical recommendations; 75 p.
Bogachiel
(U.S. 101 MP
184)
2004 Jefferson Co. 700 ft long;
2,800 ft wide
1–2 million yd3 Ongoing deformation within large landslide complex, with failure surface greater than 100 ft deep beneath highway and toeing out in river. Localized acceleration in 2004 resulted in costly repairs for 200-ft-wide section.
Movement persists and threatening previous repairs. Evidence for prehistoric catastrophic
0 8 WSDOT, 2007, Bogachiel landslide– geologic assessment and mitigation alternatives, 49 p.
Jorstad Creek
(U.S. 101 MP
322)
Feb. 1999 Mason Co. 500 ft long;
1,000 ft wide
1 million yd3 Resulted in long duration closure of US 101 with very long detour route. Extensive drainage network required to stabilize slope.
0 ≈3 Golder, 1999, Geotechnical report–landslide on
U.S. 101 MP 326 Lilliwaup, Washington, prepared for WSDOT.
Lilliwaup
U.S. 101 MP 326)
Feb. 1999 Mason Co. 500 ft long;
1,800 ft wide
1.5 million yd3 Resulted in long duration closure of US 101 with very long detour route. Extensive drainage and retaining wall required to stabilize slope.
0 ≈5–10 Golder, 1999, Geotechnical report–landslide on
U.S. 101 MP 322, prepared for WSDOT.
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Landslide Name Date Location Area Volume Comments Fatalities Direct Costs
(millions in 2014 $)
References
Allyn Curves (SR 3) Dec. 1998 Mason Co. 2,000 ft long;
1,300 ft wide
Episodically active for decades followed by severe deformation and retrogression in 1997–8 and 1998–99, resulted in 5 month highway closure. Realignment in 1993 and stabilization in 1999 costs totaled around $5 million.
0 ≈10–15 WSDOT report and memos
SR 112 MP
36
Feb. 1990 Clallam Co. 1,500 ft long;
500 ft wide
Destroyed approximately 500 ft of highway and toed out in the Straits, resulting in 8 month closure. Highway realigned off of active portion.
0 ≈5 WSDOT, 1990 report and memos
Jim Creek
(SR112 MP 32)
November 1990 Clallam Co. 300 ft long;
300 ft wide
Destroyed approximately 300 ft of highway and toed out in creek, resulting in 2-month- long highway closure with a very long detour.
0 ≈5 WSDOT and Golder reports and memos prepared for WSDOT
Widespread Shallow Landslide and Debris Flow Events in Washington State – 1984 to 2014
Time Period Areas Affected Description Fatalities References
January 2009 western Washington, including Lewis, Skagit, Whatcom, Kittitas, Clark, and Cowlitz Counties
A typical atmospheric river (Pineapple Express) storm rolled through the state, bringing with it warm rains that rapidly melted lowland snow. The Washington Geological Survey reported that the storm caused more than 1,500 landslides greater than 5,000 ft2 in size. More than 500 landslides were recorded in eastern Lewis County. Approximately 300 to 500 landslides occurred in Skagit and Whatcom Counties.
Sarikhan, I. Y.; Contreras, T. A., 2009, Landslide field trip to Morton, Glenoma, and Randle, Lewis County, Washington: Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources Open File Report 2009-1, 13 p. [http://www.dnr.wa.gov/publications/ger_ofr20 09-1_landslide_field_ trip.pdf]
December 2007 western Washington, including Mason, Jefferson, Lewis, and Thurston Counties
The storm event of December 1–3, 2007 caused thousands of landslides and major flooding. The storm brought snow, warm rain, and hurricane force winds across much of western Washington. Landslides blocked or damaged roads, isolating communities in the height of the storm and delaying emergency response. A massive debris avalanche and numerous smaller landslides blocked SR 6. SR 8 was blocked by landslides near Onalaska. Highway 101 was blocked north of the Skokomish River. Nearly 20 in. of rain was recorded within a 48-hour period in the headwaters of the Chehalis River. This caused more than 1,600 landslides in the Chehalis headwater basin alone, clogging flood waters with debris. I-5 was flooded with as much as 10 ft of water.
Sarikhan, I. Y.; Stanton, K. D.; Contreras, T. A.; Polenz, Michael; Powell, Jack; Walsh, T. J.; Logan, R. L., 2008, Landslide reconnaissance following the storm event of December 1-3, 2007, in western Washington: Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources Open File Report 2008-5, 16 p. [http://www.dnr.wa.gov/publications/ger_ofr20 08-5_dec2007_landslides.pdf]
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Time Period Areas Affected Description Fatalities References
December 2006 western Washington A strong storm known as the Hanukkah Eve Storm of 2006 brought hurricane force wind gusts and heavy rains to western Washington. The storm initiated a small number of landslides around western Washington.
January to February 2006
entire state Prolonged heavy rainfall from December 2005 into January 2006 caused numerous landslides throughout the state. More than 13 in. of rain fell between December 19 and January 14. Slides, slumps, or settlement closed lanes of I-5, US 101, SR’s 4, 9, 14, 107, 105, 112, 116, 166, 302, and 530 for various periods. On February 3, the Governor signed emergency proclamation requesting federal funds for all 39 counties.
Information from news reports and the Washington Department of Transportation
October 2003 entire state, including Skagit, Okanogan, Clallam, Jefferson, Mason, Snohomish, Pierce Counties
Heavy rainfall caused severe flooding and landslides in 15 counties. Landslides or ground failure caused temporary closures on nine state highways. Landslides closed SR 20 between Skagit and Okanogan Counties, a landslide closed SR 112 in Clallam County, debris flows also blocked US 101 in Jefferson and Mason Counties, US 2 in Snohomish County, and SR 410 in Pierce County.
Nisqually Earthquake – February 28, 2001
western Washington, including Tacoma, Renton, Olympia, Burien, and Tumwater
The magnitude 6.8 earthquake produced a number of significant, widely scattered landslides resulting in at least $34.3 million in losses. Salmon Beach suffered a 1,300 yd3 landslide that demolished two homes. Cedar River had two landslides, one of which was an estimated 50,000 yd3. The parkway on Capitol Lake experienced significant damage from ground failure. Five homes in Burien sustained structural damage when underlying fill formed a landslide.
Highland, L. M., 2003, An account of preliminary landslide damage and losses resulting from the February 28, 2001, Nisqually, Washington, earthquake: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 03-211, 48 p. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr-03-211/ofr-03- 211.pdf]
September 17,
1997
Clallam Co. Debris flow-avalanche kills one in Port Angeles tavern situated below steep slope. Weather was not especially wet preceding the event (0.5 in. of rain).
1
December 1996
to January 1997
western Washington, primarily the bluffs of Puget Sound, Lake Washington, Lake Union, Portage Bay, West Seattle, Magnolia Bluff, and along the
id
December precipitation was 191% of normal, triggering hundreds of landslides and debris flows on steep bluffs and ravines. At least four people were killed by these events, and millions of dollars of damage were caused. A landslide on January 15 derailed five cars of a freight train midway between Seattle and Everett. Twenty to 30 landslides occurred in Pierce County, including one that cut phone service to homes on Salmon Beach.
In Whatcom and Clark Counties, two interstate natural gas lines were ruptured due to landslides, causing
4 Gerstel, W. J.; Brunengo, M. J.; Lingley, W. S., Jr.; Logan, R. L.; Shipman, Hugh; Walsh, T. J., 1997, Puget Sound bluffs—The where, why, and when of landslides following the holiday 1996/97 storms: Washington Geology, v. 25, no. 1, p. 17-31. [http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ publications/ger_washington_geology_1997_v2 5 1 df]
February 1996 entire state, including Walla Walla, Seattle, and Pierce, Thurston, Lewis, Clark, and Skamania Counties
Near-record snowfall in January followed by warm, heavy rain caused massive flooding and landslides. Landslides damaged or destroyed nearly 8,000 homes and closed traffic along major highways (including I- 5, SR 4, and SR 503) for several days. Damages totaled at least $800 million.
The highest concentration of landslides occurred near Walla Walla. Seattle had more than 40 landslides during the winter, about two-thirds of which were related to the storm. Lewis County had the largest landslide, with an estimated 1.5 million yd3 of debris.
U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1996, Interagency Hazard Mitigation Team report, including progress report on early implementation strategies—State of Washington, winter storms of 1995-1996; FEMA-DR-1079, declared January 3, 1996; FEMA-DR-1100-WA, declared February 9, 1996 U S Fd l E M
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As the county continues to grow and the desire of people to have a home with a view, an increasing number of structures are built on top of or below slopes subject to land sliding. Land is not stable indefinitely. People often believe that if a bluff has remained stable for the last 50 years, it will remain so for the next
50 years regardless of the development or maintenance around it. As trees are removed to make way for new homes, the nature of erosion and water absorption makes the slopes and bluff in these areas a dynamic and changing environment. Characteristics that may be indicative of a landslide hazard area:
• Bluff retreat caused by sloughing of bluff sediments, resulting in a vertical bluff face with little vegetation
• Pre-existing landslide area
• Tension or ground cracks along or near the edge of the top of a bluff
• Structural damage caused by settling and cracking of building foundations and separation of steps from the main structure
• Toppling, bowed or jack-sawed trees
• Gullying and surface erosion
• Mid-slope ground water seepage from a bluff face Land stability cannot be absolutely predicted with current technology. An unequivocal predictor of landslide vulnerability is the occurrence of previous landslides in the same area. The best design and construction measures are still vulnerable to slope failure. The amount of protection, usually correlated to cost, is proportional to the level of risk reduction. Debris and vegetation management is integral to
preventing landslide damages. Corrective measures help, but still leave the property vulnerable to risk. Figure LS-4 shows the known landslide risk areas within the City of Port Townsend.12
A landslide risk assessment was completed by Risk Management by comparing the unstable-to-intermediate sloped areas with the locations of buildings throughout coastal zones of eastern Jefferson County. The analysis is summarized in Table LS-2 for Port Townsend and unincorporated portions of the county. Table
LS-2 shows the building value (in dollars) for the communities located in the known and potentially unstable slope zones. This table also includes the number of buildings in the zone as well as the overall total number of buildings and building value.13
Over 1600 buildings are located in potential coastal landslide zones, which have a total estimated value of approximately $237.5 million. The majority of these buildings are located in unincorporated areas; these
1590 buildings have an estimated value of $225 million. In Port Townsend, 56 out of 2129 buildings are identified in Unstable, Unstable recent slide, Unstable old slide, and Intermediate slope zones of the coastal zone atlas slope stability map. Figure LS-6 provides a sample map of Port Townsend to illustrate how slope stability and recent landslides are illustrated in map sets available from the Washington.14
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Figure LS-5 City of Port Townsend Seismic, Landslide and Erosion Risk12
Although the blue areas are seismic hazard areas likely to liquefy, they are frequently adjacent to high-bank waterfront that can easily calve off if the area becomes unstable at sea level.
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Table LS-2 - Buildings Exposed to Unstable, Unstable-Recent, Unstable-Old, Intermediate, and Stable Slopes13
Note: Two highlighted rows show the values obtained relative to the Coastal Zone Atlas slope stability study area (Washington Department of Ecology, 1978)
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Figure LS-6 – Sample Slope Stability Map for Port Townsend14
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Climate Change
The NOPRCD report projects a 13% (±7%) increase in days with >1 inch of rain by the 2050s
along with a 50% chance of future annual coastal flood elevation rise of ≥ 2.9 feet in Port
Townsend.15 Shifts in the timing and type of precipitation, creating rain on snow events and
unseasonably high stream flows will scour river bottoms and flood low-land areas.16 This, in turn, will undercut high banks and destabilize hillsides, thus promoting increased landslides.
On Sunday, Oct. 13, 2013 another large chunk of sand and debris tumbled to the beach below “End of the World,” a bluff overlooking the Strait of Juan de Fuca on the edge of Port Townsend. Photo by Scott Wilson17
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Conclusion Jefferson County’s significant coastline, Olympic Mountains, and network of roads that parallel rivers make it a high risk for landslides and high vulnerability to the cost of repairing the damage.
Some landslide hazards can be mitigated by engineering, design, or construction so that risks are acceptable. When technology cannot reduce the risk to acceptable levels, building in hazardous areas should be avoided.
Ordinances identifying geological hazards must be rigorously applied. The least expensive and most effective landslide loss reduction measure is by avoidance. The next most
economical solution is mitigation using qualified expertise with an investigation report review process. The most costly is repair of landslide damages.
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References - LANDSLIDES
1. “Landslide”, The Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2011, pp. 32-33. 2. “Wyoming officials eye slow-moving landslide, evacuate residents”, by Michael Martinez, CNN, April 12, 2014. Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/12/us/wyoming-slow-landslide/index.html 3. Email from Monte Reinders, Director of Jefferson County Public Works, April 27, 2016 4. Ibid. 1,32. 5. Whidbey Island Coupeville Landslide, Ear to the Ground, Washington Department of Natural Resource, March 27, 2013. Accessed September 2016. Available at: https://washingtondnr.wordpress.com/2013/03/27/whidbey-island-coupeville-landslide/
6. Prehistoric landslide complex, fault runs along Ledgewood, by Jessie Stensland, Whidbey News-Times Co-Editor, Whidbey News Times, March 30 2013.
7. Whidbey Island Coupeville Landslide, Ear to the Ground, Washington Department of Natural Resource, March 27, 2013. Accessed September 2016. Available at: https://washingtondnr.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/whidbeyislandlandslide-before-and-after.jpg 8. Landslides, Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend Hazard Mitigation Plan, Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, 2009, p. 123. 9. “Landslide Hazard Profile”, Washington State Enhanced Mitigation Plan, Washington Military Department, Emergency Management Division, November 2012, Tab 5.7, p.26. Available at:
http://mil.wa.gov/uploads/pdf/HAZ-MIT-PLAN/Landslide_Hazard_Profile.pdf
10. Map – Jefferson County Landslide Risk, Jefferson County GIS Unit, Accessed August 2016.
11. List of Large Landslides, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://file.dnr.wa.gov/publications/ger_list_large_landslides.pdf 12. Map - City of Port Townsend Seismic, Landslide and Erosion Hazard Areas, City of Port Townsend GIS, 2016. 13. Risk Report for Jefferson County including the City of Port Townsend and the Hoh Tribe, FEMA, February 2016, p. 19. Available at: http://www.jeffcoeoc.org/documents/JeffersonCounty_RiskReport_Final_508.pdf 14. Sample Slope Stability Map for Port Townsend, Washington Department of Ecology, Shorelines and Environmental Assistance Program, Accessed September 2016. Available at: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/femaweb/Jefferson/JE_6ith.jpg 15. Petersen, S., Bell, J., Miller, I., Jayne, C., Dean, K., Fougerat, M., 2015. Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula. A Project of the North Olympic Peninsula Resource Conservation & Development Council and the Washington Department of Commerce, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency. p. II. Available: www.noprcd.org 16. Ibid.
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17. End of the World’ bluff slipping away, By Patrick J. Sullivan of the Leader, Port Townsend Leader, October 16, 2013.
Tables - LANDSLIDES
LS-1 Significant Landslides that Directly Affected Jefferson County LS-2 Buildings Exposed to Unstable, Unstable-Recent, Unstable-Old, Intermediate, and Stable Slopes
Figures - LANDSLIDES
LS-1 Before and After the Ledgewood-Bonair Landslide LS-2 Areas Most Vulnerable to Landslides LS-3 Counties Vulnerable to Landslides LS-4 Jefferson County Landslide Risk
LS-5 City of Port Townsend Seismic, Landslide and Erosion Risk LS-6 Sample Slope Stability Map for Port Townsend
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PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY
SUMMARY
The Hazard: Public Health Emergencies can be food or water contamination or medical emergencies such as diseases, epidemics, or a pandemic that have the potential to affect people and animals over a significant area. Water emergencies are discussed in the sections on man-made hazards. Impacts and Effects:
• Potential deaths due to toxins or illness
• Increase in illness
• Potential illness and death of commercial livestock as well as domestic pets
• Increased stress on local health care system and providers
• Demands made on local health care system beyond capacity to respond
• Disruption of local commerce
• Spot shortages of food, supplies due to commerce disruption
• Economic impact due to loss of sales from people sheltering in place
• Economic impact of lost work-time due to illness
• Pharmaceutical Interventions such as mass distribution of antibiotics, antiviral medications and/or vaccines
• Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions including, but not limited to social distancing, isolation and quarantine, health education, and respiratory etiquette.
Previous Occurrences: In 2008, national recalls of pet foods due to melamine contamination and peanut butter products due to salmonella affected Jefferson County to a small extent. In 2007, public health authorities tracked customers who purchased particular produce from a local farm store when it was discovered that the employee stocking the produce had Hepatitis-A.
Probability of Future Events: High – There is a high probability of viral diseases being introduced
into the area due to the large number of visitors to this tourism destination, or due to national events introducing things into the distribution systems. Specifically, the Wooden Boat Festival draws an international attendance of about 40,000 people to Port Townsend each year, providing an ideal venue for
contact, airborne and mosquito-borne vectors. Additionally, immunization coverage for Jefferson County is below the State average in 22 out of 33
categories for children up to the age of 17 years-old. Since the previous Hazard Mitigation Plan was completed, the U.S. has experienced epidemic threats from
the Ebola virus and the Zika virus. Ebola is spread by contact with infected body fluids and is almost always fatal. Zika is spread via mosquito bites and / or intimate contact with someone who is infected. It can cause birth defects if an infected woman is pregnant or becomes pregnant.
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Definitions
Public Health Emergencies can be food or water contamination or medical emergencies such as diseases, epidemics, or pandemic. In the United States, a public health emergency declaration releases resources meant to handle an actual or potential public health crisis. Recent examples include incidents of flooding,
severe weather, and the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak1. Disease – Unhealthy condition of the body or mind. A corresponding condition of plants. Epidemic – A widespread occurrence of a disease in a community at a particular time. Outbreak – Limited area in occurrence of a disease in a community at a particular time. Pandemic – Prevalent over a whole country or the world; Universal; Widespread Influenza – a viral disease in which the infected person is feverish, has muscle soreness, headaches, and a general malaise. It can impair breathing function, and be fatal to vulnerable people. Seasonal Influenza – Usually affects 5-10% of the population. Avian Influenza – Variations of the H5N1 virus that spread across bird populations and have been able to cross species into humans in some areas of Asia and Africa. None have been in the United States. Pandemic Flu – Pandemic influenza causes illness in as much as 25-30% of the population, and has had death rates as high as 2.5% in 1918. Table PH-1 summarizes the four flu pandemics that have occurred since 19182.
Table PH-1 – Pandemic Flu History2
Occurrence Period Description
1918 - 19193
“Illness from the 1918 flu pandemic, also known as the Spanish flu, came on quickly. Some people felt fine in the morning but died by nightfall. People who caught the Spanish Flu but did not die from it often died from complications caused by bacteria, such as pneumonia. During the 1918 pandemic:
• Approximately 20% to 40% of the worldwide population became ill • An estimated 50 million people died
• Nearly 675,000 people died in the United States Unlike earlier pandemics and seasonal flu outbreaks, the 1918 pandemic flu saw high mortality rates among healthy adults. In fact, the illness and mortality rates were highest among adults 20 to 50 years old. The reasons for this remain unknown.”
1957 - 19584
“In February 1957, a new flu virus was identified in the Far East. Immunity to this strain was rare in people younger than 65. A pandemic was predicted. To prepare, health officials closely monitored flu outbreaks. Vaccine production began in late May 1957 and was available in limited supply by August 1957. In the summer of 1957, the virus came to the United States quietly with a series of small outbreaks. When children returned to school in the fall, they spread the disease in classrooms and brought it home to their families. Infection rates peaked among school children, young adults, and pregnant women in October 1957. By December 1957, the worst seemed to be over. However, another wave of illness came in January and February of 1958. This is an example of the potential "second wave" of infections that can happen during a pandemic. Most influenza–and pneumonia–related deaths occurred between September 1957 and March 1958. Although the 1957 pandemic was not as devastating as the 1918 pandemic, about 69,800 people in the United States died. The elderly had the highest rates of death.”
1968 - 19695
“In early 1968, a new flu virus was detected in Hong Kong. The first cases in the United States were detected as early as September 1968. Illness was not widespread in the United States until December 1968. Deaths from this virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969. Those over the age of 65 were most likely to die. The number of deaths between September 1968 and March 1969 was 33,800, making it the mildest flu pandemic in the 20th century. The same virus returned in 1970 and 1972.”
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Table PH-1 – Pandemic Flu History2
Occurrence Period Description
2009 - 20106
“In the spring of 2009, a new flu virus spread quickly across the United States and the world. The first U.S. case of H1N1 (swine flu) was diagnosed on April 15, 2009. By April 21, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was working to develop a vaccine for this new virus. On April 26, the U.S. government declared H1N1 a public health emergency. By June, 18,000 cases of H1N1 had been reported in the United States. A total of 74 countries were affected by the pandemic. H1N1 vaccine supply was limited in the beginning. People at the highest risk of complications got the vaccine first. By November 2009, 48 states had reported cases of H1N1, mostly in young people. That same month, over 61 million vaccine doses were ready. Reports of flu activity began to decline in parts of the country, which gave the medical community a chance to vaccinate more people. 80 million people were vaccinated against H1N1, which minimized the impact of the illness. The CDC estimates that 43 million to 89 million people had H1N1 between April 2009 and April 2010. They estimate between 8,870 and 18,300 H1N1 related deaths. On August 10, 2010 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the global H1N1 flu pandemic” Source: Flu.gov
History of Public Health Emergencies in Jefferson County
1859 – The bark What Cheer cleared Portland in December 1859 infested with smallpox. Numerous crew members died in sight of Protection Island of the Jefferson County coast. According to Indian legends, an Ozette village of 400 people was decimated, the Makah suffered heavy losses, and Indian villages at Port Discovery and Port Townsend were stricken by smallpox, including the household of Chetzemoka, Chief of the Indian village at Port Townsend.7 1892 – Fear of a leper among the Port Townsend Chinese population served as a catalyst to establish the
Diamond Point Quarantine Station in 1893.8 1900 – Outbreak of bubonic plague was contained by confining victims at the Diamond Point Quarantine Station.9 1913 – The Diamond Point Quarantine Station was used to house lepers until 1926.10
1918 – Influenza epidemic causes many deaths in Jefferson County.11 2006 – Anderson Lake, Gibbs Lake, and Teal Lake quarantined because of toxic Blue/Green algae. Two dogs die after drinking the water.12
2007 – Jefferson County health authorities put out warnings to customers of a Port Townsend farm who purchased produce handled by an employee who had contracted Hepatitis-A. The potentially exposed groups Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) customers, Port Townsend Food Co-op customers and children and others who attended a field trip to the farm the first week of June.13
2015-2016 – “Anderson Lake remains closed due to toxic algae.” Anderson Lake had been closed in the spring
of 2015 due to high levels of a nerve toxin anatoxin that comes from blue-green algae in the lake. The toxin level was 28.94 micrograms per liter; the Washington state recreational standard is less than one microgram per liter.14
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Hazard Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment
Hazard Profile
Jefferson County faces the same public health hazards as the rest of the country in the sense that it has national food chains within the county that bring in produce and products from around the world. What follows is a representative list of types of food contamination and disease risks that occur in this area: Blue-Green Algae15: Jefferson County lakes have periodically seen moderate blooms of toxic blue-green algae. During such blooms, lakes are quarantined and users are warned not to drink lake water, swim in the lake, or consume fish from the lake. The algae (genera Anabaena, Microcystis, and Aphanizomenon) produce toxins that cause liver damage or nerve impairment. Small children, people with liver problems, and pets are most at risk.
E coli16: Eschericia coli O157:H57 is a bacterial infection causing bloody stool and abdominal cramps. It usually resolves without specific treatment in 5-10 days unless there are complications. Treatment with
antibiotics can actually cause complications. Two to seven percent of cases develop complications. Washington has experience outbreaks in campsites, contaminated swimming areas, and occasionally in restaurants due to undercooked foods.
Hantavirus17: Carried by deer mice, this virus is passed to humans when they breathe in the aerosolized virus. It can cause hemorrhagic fevers, renal syndrome, and Hantavirus (cardio-) pulmonary syndrome (HPS). HPS is potentially deadly. One to five cases are reported every year in Washington. Auto mechanics are particularly concerned because they often do repairs on vehicles in which rodents have been in the engine compartment, and left droppings and dust. Lyme Disease18: Lyme disease is a tick-borne disease in which local deer populations support populations of deer ticks. Early manifestations are fever, headache, fatigue, depression, and a “bulls-eye” skin rash. If treatment is early, the infection can be eliminated. If late or untreated, manifestations of the disease can involve the heart, joints, and nervous system, and be disabling. Approximately fifteen cases are reported
in Washington each year. The state does not track Lyme Disease unless it is a human infection. Veterinarians that treat infected pets do not report the incidence, resulting in reservoirs of the disease remaining undetected until a human contracts it. Port Townsend has a deer herd of 238 individuals within
the six-square mile city limits.19 Red Tide20: Local bays, such as Discovery Bay and Oak Bay, are periodically contaminated by a “red
tide” that infects shellfish and produces a marine biotoxin that can cause paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in people eating the shellfish. In 2006, nearly the entire coastline of Jefferson County was closed to recreational harvesting of shellfish. Commercial shellfish are tested separately, and commercial harvesters have been affected by closures of their commercial shellfish farms from time to time, too. Toxic contaminants21: The melamine contamination of pet food was a significant event in Port Townsend, as it was around the country. Being a small city, such events make the front page of local news and become personalized because people you know are affected. A local man had batches of cat food tested after his cat died, and found out that it did not have melamine in it, but it was contaminated with acetaminophen. West Nile Virus22: West Nile Virus can cause asymptotic infections, West Nile Fever, and encephalitis. It mainly infects birds, but can infect humans, horses, dogs, cats, bats, chipmunks, skunks, squirrels, and
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domestic rabbits. The main source of human infection is through the bite of an infected and mosquitoes. The main way it is spread is with mosquitoes. There were only 47 mosquitos tested for the virus in Jefferson
County during the period from 2006 – 2016, and no positives in Jefferson County during that time. West Nile Virus has been primarily a problem in East and Central Washington counties, although it did reach both Mason County and Grays Harbor County in 2009 with one bird testing positive in each county23.
Vulnerability Washington State has a significant number of statutes and administrative rules giving authorities the capability to deal with public health emergencies: RCW 70.05.060 Authority of Local Board of Health and Local Health Officer RCW 70.070 Mandates of Local Health Officer WAC 245-100 Duties and Responsibilities of Local Health Officer, Isolation and Quarantine Authority WAC 245-100-036 Communicable and certain other diseases RCW 68.50 Role, Responsibility and authority of the Medical Examiner RCW 70.58.020.030 Local Health Officer is Registrar of Vital Statistics
RCW 43.20.050(4) Enforcement of Isolation and Quarantine Orders by law enforcement RCW 18.71 Physician’s Trained Mobile Intensive Care Paramedic RCW 18.73 Emergency Medical Technicians, Transport Vehicles
RCW 70.168 State-wide Trauma Care System
The problem for Jefferson County is that a significant portion of its population can be considered vulnerable, and it has ecological factors that can exacerbate health issues. Jefferson County has one acute care hospital with 25 beds and six fire districts that provide emergency medical response. East Jefferson Fire & Rescue, which is the only fire district to provide 24x7 manned stations, provides out-of-county transport services for the hospital. All districts except for Fire District 7 are combination departments relying heavily on volunteers. Fire District 7 is an all-volunteer department that covers the West Jefferson County area. During region-wide events, such as a pandemic, local resources will be overwhelmed very quickly and result in the necessity to make life and death decisions at operational levels. Jefferson County, demographically, is turning into a retirement area. The natural beauty and unspoiled terrain encourages people to build into wooded areas with the effect that deer herds and coyotes coexist in
the same localities. It is the norm for people to have deer fences around their gardens. This also means that the retiree population, the over-50, is constantly exposed to the vectors for many of the viruses and illnesses listed above. Mice infest the engine compartments of vehicles parked outdoors, deer ticks are
prevalent in fallow fields, and raccoons maintain super-highways through home-owner associations. Some of Jefferson County’s vulnerability issues stem from its maritime heritage and a “back-to-the-earth”
movement that settled in the county during the 1970’s. Port Townsend is a working Victorian seaport, and as such, receives visitors from all over the world. Each year in September, there is a world-renowned Wooden Boat Festival that attracts visitors from around the world. Over 40,000 visitors show up for that week-end, many in boats from who-knows-where, and who are capable of carrying a communicable disease into a dense group of people who are quickly going to disperse to a wide variety of geographic areas. The “back-to-the-earth” movement has resulted in a robust food co-op and farmer’s markets in Jefferson County and neighboring Clallam County. These entities provide a wide-variety of locally grown organic produce to the residents of the area. What is unique is that they also provide a source for raw milk and raw
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cheeses to be sold commercially. Sequim Washington has one of the few commercial dairies certified to produce and sell raw milk and cheese. While many people believe that there is a significant health benefit
for raw milk over pasteurized milk, it still has to be recognized that any contamination of the milk will not be killed during a heat-treatment process, and that consumers are dependent on the integrity of the dairy farmer to maintain a healthy product.
Jefferson County also has vaccination rates below the State’s average in 22 out of 33 categories among children, ages 19-months to 17-years old. Table PH-2, below, consolidates the immunization coverage tables from the Washington State Department of Health so that Jefferson County immunization rates are compared directly to the Washington State average immunization rates for children up to 17-years old.24 The difference in percent immunization is in GREEN when Jefferson County rates are above the state average and are RED when the rates are below the state average. To reiterate, Jefferson County immunization rates are below the state average in 22 of 33 categories for 2015. Figure PH-1, following, shows the average immunization rates for both juveniles and adults in the State, along with the immunization goals desired.25 It, too, shows significant gaps between goals and experience within the State, and implies the same for Jefferson County.
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Figure PH-1 – Immunization Coverage for Jefferson County as of 12/31/201524
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Figure PH-1 – Washington Immunization Scorecard25
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Special Consideration
Ebola Virus: Causes a severe and often fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans and mammals. Mortality rate is high (up to 83-90%). The natural reservoir of Ebola virus is bats, and it is transmitted between humans and from animals to humans through contact with body fluids.26 No cases have ever been identified in Jefferson County, but the U.S. had cases of infected doctors and / or travelers returning to the U.S. after having acquired it in infected areas of Africa. Zika Virus27: “The infection, known as Zika fever or Zika virus disease, often causes no or only mild symptoms, similar to a very mild form of dengue fever.28 While there is no specific treatment, paracetamol (acetaminophen) and rest may help with the symptoms.29 As of 2016, the illness cannot be prevented by
medications or vaccines.30 Zika can spread from a pregnant woman to her fetus. This can result in microcephaly, severe brain malformations, and other birth defects.31“
Climate Change
Table PH-3, Summary of Projected Climate Change and Related Human Health Impacts, is taken in its entirety from “Section 12 – How Will Climate Change Affect Human Health in Washington?32” It provides a comprehensive summarization of how “human health in Washington is likely to be affected by
projected increases in extreme heat events, flooding, sea level rise, drought, and forest fires; increased allergen production and summer air pollution; and changes in the types, distribution, and transmission of infectious diseases (e.g., West Nile Virus) and fungal diseases.33” The table is based on Bethel et al. 201334 and other sources. Few studies have been conducted to date on climate change impacts to human health in the Pacific Northwest, so impacts listed in the table represent examples rather than an all-inclusive list of potential impacts35.
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Table PH-3 - Summary of Projected Climate Change and Related Human Health Impacts32
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References for Table PH-3
Conclusion
Jefferson County has several unique factors that increase its vulnerability to contaminated foods and the
spread of infection, but public health officials recognize this and work hard to contain local outbreaks of disease or contaminated products. Nevertheless, the potential exists that in a region-wide event or a pandemic event, local resources will be quickly overwhelmed necessitating help from outside the region.
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References – PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY
1. Public Health Emergency (United States), Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_(United_States) 2. “Pandemic Flu History”, Flu.gov, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/index.html 3. Ibid. 4. Ibid. 5. Ibid. 6. Ibid. 7. Port Townsend – The City that Whiskey Built, Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing, Inc., 2002, pp. 136-137.
8. Port Townsend – An Illustrated History of Shanghaiing, Shipwrecks, Soiled Doves and Sundry Souls, Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing, Inc., 2000, p. 313. 9. Ibid., 314. 10. Ibid., 314-317. 11. Ibid. 12. “Anderson Lake, Gibbs Lake, and Teal Lake Quarantine because of toxic blue/green algae”, Leader
Staff, Port Townsend Leader, May 2006.
13. “Hepatitis A case from Sunfield Farm is confirmed”, 14. “Anderson Lake remains closed due to toxic algae.”, Leader Staff, Port Townsend Leader, April 21, 2016.
15. “Lab results show toxic blue / green algae present in Anderson Lake”, Jefferson County Public Health, June 5, 2006.
16. Shiga Toxin-Producing E. coli (STEC), Washington State Department of Health, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily/IllnessandDisease/Ecoli 17. Hantavirus, Washington State Department of Health, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily/IllnessandDisease/Hantavirus 18. Lyme Disease, Washington State Department of Health, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily/IllnessandDisease/LymeDisease 19. Deer count tallies 238 in Port Townsend, Robin Dudley of the Leader, Port Townsend Leader, April 6, 2016.
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20. Paralytic Shellfish Poison, Washington State Department of Health, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.doh.wa.gov/CommunityandEnvironment/Shellfish/BiotoxinsIllnessPrevention/Biotoxins/ParalyticShellfishPoison 21. “PT man sues over cat’s death”, Blythe Lawrence, Leader Staff Writer, Port Townsend Leader, July
25, 2007. 22. West Nile Virus Symptoms & Treatment, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Accessed August 2016. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/westnile/symptoms/index.html 23. 2009 West Nile Virus Activity, Washington State Department of Health, Accessed August 2016.
Available at: http://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStatisticalReports/DiseasesandChronicConditions/WestNileVirus/2009WestNileVirusActivity 24. Consolidated Immunization Rates for Jefferson County, Table created by Ken Horvath; Source: Washington State Immunization Information System, Washington State Department of Public
Health, 2016.
25. Washington Immunization Scorecard, Washington State Department of Public Health, March 2016. 26. Ebola Virus, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus
27. Zika Virus, Wikipedia, Accessed August 2016. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_virus 28. Malone, Robert W.; Homan, Jane; Callahan, Michael V.; et al. (2 March 2016). "Zika Virus: Medical Countermeasure Development Challenges". PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 10 (3): e0004530. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004530. ISSN 1935-2735.
29. Symptoms, Diagnosis, & Treatment". Zika virus. Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 3 March 2016. Retrieved 4 March 2016. 30. Ibid.
31. "CDC Concludes Zika Causes Microcephaly and Other Birth Defects". CDC. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 14 April 2016. 32. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision Makers, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, December 2013, pp. 12-1 - 12-6. Available at: http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/snoveretalsok816.pdf
33. Ibid. 12-1. 34. Bethel, J. et al. 2013. Human health: Impacts and adaptation. Chapter 7 in M.N. Dalton, P.W. Mote, and A.K. Snover (eds.) Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities, Washington D.C.: Island Press.
35. Ibid. 32,12-1.
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Figures - PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY
PH-1 Washington Immunization Rates vs Goals
Tables - PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY
PH-1 Pandemic Flu History PH-2 Immunization Coverage for Jefferson County as of 12/31/2015 PH-3 Summary of Projected Climate Change and Related Human Health Impacts