HomeMy WebLinkAboutA30 V6 Approved 2016 - Sect II - Natural HazardsJefferson County – City of Port Townsend All Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016)
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SECTION II
MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend All Hazard Mitigation Plan (Rev. 2016)
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This Page Intentionally Blank
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Multi-Jurisdictional Community Profile
INTRODUCTION
The research and preparation of the Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Identification is an outgrowth of The Jefferson County Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA) which was completed in January 2016.1 It also contains data extracted from the Risk Report for Jefferson County,
including the City of Port Townsend and the Hoh Tribe.2 The purpose of these analyses is to provide information on potential large-scale hazards that could impact Jefferson County. It is
intended to provide a basis for awareness and planning to support county-wide emergency management programs.
The hazards discussed in this section are not the only ones that may threaten the people or the properties of the County. Conditions may change and new information may become available that could necessitate modifications. Data contained in this Analysis has been extracted from
various publications, maps, and internet websites. This section is not intended to be a detailed study of each hazard, but rather a general overview of hazards and vulnerabilities to those hazards as pertains to Jefferson County. JEFFERSON COUNTY PROFILE
GEOGRAPHY
Jefferson County, the 18th largest county in Washington, is situated in the upper half of the Olympic Peninsula in Northwest Washington.3 Mountains, rolling timbered hills and lowlands comprise the topography. Mountains comprise approximately 75% of the county’s landmass and fall within the boundaries of the Olympic National Park and the Olympic National Forest. The county is bounded by the Pacific Ocean on its western
edge. Beach areas on the Pacific are also part of the Olympic National Park. (See Figure J-1 Jefferson County.)
According to the Washington Data Book, the county has a total area of 5,655 km² (2,184 mi²). 4,699 km² (1,814 mi²) of it is land and 956 km² (369 mi²) of
it (16.91%) is water.
The county is split in three parts by its landforms:
Eastern Jefferson County along the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and Puget Sound; Central Jefferson County, which is uninhabited and lies in the Olympic Mountains within Olympic National Park and Olympic National Forest and Western Jefferson County, along the Pacific Ocean. Because of the mountainous barrier, there is no road lying entirely within Jefferson County that connects the eastern and western parts. The most direct land route between the two ends of the county involves a drive of approximately 100 miles along U.S. Route 101 through neighboring
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Clallam County. The mountains also block the damp Chinook winds, which make the climate very much wetter in the West than the so-called Eastern "banana belt" in the rain shadow.4 The original
formation of Jefferson County during a time when the Oregon Territory was poorly explored is now generally recognized as a geographical error, but an error which cannot be conveniently rectified. The Strait of Juan de Fuca separates Vancouver Island of British Columbia from the
Olympic Peninsula of Washington state. The western and eastern areas of the county are separated by the Olympic National Park and Olympic National Forest properties. The mountain areas of the Park include mountains up to nearly 8,000 feet. These National Park and National Forest areas are among the most scenic areas of the state if not the entire country. The lower half of the eastern shoreline of Hood Canal is also part of the Olympic National Forest. The upper half of the eastern shoreline is an area of rich valleys leading to the foothills of the Olympic Mountains. Steep and rocky cliffs give way to low beaches and wetlands. The upper half of the eastern section of the county is where most of the population resides. Eastern Jefferson County consists of low rolling hills leading to moderately steep, glacial terraces and long narrow valleys in the northern and northeaster sections. The southeastern section consists primarily of moderately steep, to steep glacial terraces and very steep, rough mountain foothills.
In Western Jefferson County, the 30-mile long coastal area includes many beaches and rocky cliffs. The broad valleys of several large rivers traverse from the mountains in the central part of the
county to the western beaches. The coastal area consists of gentle rolling to moderately steep glacial terraced uplands interspersed with numerous swampy depressions. Several mountainous spur ridges up to 1,500 feet tall are part of this coastal area. From the coastal area to the Olympic Park boundary, the topography rises abruptly to 3,400 feet to become part of the steep western flanks of the Olympic Mountains. (See Figure J-2 Geology) CLIMATE WEST OLYMPIC-COASTAL (West Jefferson County) – This area includes the coastal
plains and western slope of the Coastal Range from the Columbia River to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Olympic Mountains, located on the northern section of the Olympic Peninsula, tower to nearly 8,000 feet deeply carved by rivers. The Willapa Hills, elevation 1,000 to 3,000 feet, form a
continuous ridge from the Chehalis River valley to the Columbia River. This area receives the full force of storms moving inland from over the ocean, thus heavy precipitation and winds of gale force occur frequently during the winter season. Wind velocities in the lower elevations can be
expected to reach 90 to 100 mph. once in 100 years. Wind data from a well-exposed site on a ridge near the ocean, elevation 2,000 feet, indicates that wind velocities in excess of 100 mph occur in the higher elevations almost every winter. The “rainforest” area along the southwestern and western slopes of the Olympic Mountains receives the heaviest precipitation in the continental United States. Annual precipitation ranges from 70 to 100 inches over the Coastal Plains to 150 inches or more along the windward slopes of the mountains. The greatest annual precipitation recorded in the “rainforest” area is 184 inches at Wynoochee Oxbow, elevation 600 feet. The heaviest rainfall during a single storm was 12 inches in 24 hours; 23.5 inches in 48 hours; 28.6 inches in 72 hours; and 35 inches in four days recorded at Quinault Ranger Station, January 21-24, 1935. On Blue Glacier, elevation 6,900 feet and near
the summit of Mt. Olympus, 149 inches of precipitation were recorded between August 1957 and
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July 1958. The total snowfall for this period was 542 inches. During the same period, precipitation at lower elevation stations was approximately 15 percent below normal.
Winter season snowfall ranges from 10 to 30 inches in the lower elevations and between 250 to 500 inches in the higher mountains. In the lower elevations, snow melts rather quickly and depths
seldom exceed six to 15 inches. In midwinter, the snowline in the Olympic Mountains and the Willapa Hills is between 1,500 and 3,000 feet above sea level. The higher ridges are covered with
snow from November until June. The average maximum temperature in July is near 70° F along
the coast and 75° F in the foothills, and minimum temperatures are near 50° F. In winter, the warmer areas are near the coast. In January, maximum temperatures range from 43° to 48° and minimum
temperatures from 32° to 38° F. NORTHEAST OLYMPIC-SAN JUAN (Includes East Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend) – This area includes the lower elevations along the northeastern slope of the Olympic Mountains extending eastward along the Strait of Juan de Fuca from near Port Angeles to Whidbey Island and then northward into the San Juan Islands. The Olympic Mountains and the extension of the Coastal Range on Vancouver Island shield this area from winter storms moving inland from over the ocean. This belt in the “rain shadow” of the Olympic Mountains is the driest area in western Washington. The average annual precipitation ranges from about 18 inches near Sequim, Port Townsend and Coupeville to between 25 and 30 inches in the vicinity of Everett on the east, Port Angeles on the west and Olga in the San Juan Islands on the north. Measurable
precipitation is recorded on three to five days each month in summer and on 17 to 22 days in winter. Another factor which distinguishes this belt from other localities in the Puget Sound region is the rate of rainfall. This area frequently receives drizzle or light rain while other localities are experiencing light to moderate rainfall. Snowfall is light in the lower elevations adjacent to the water, increasing with distance from the water and rise in terrain. This area is considered to receive
slightly more sunshine and have less cloudiness than other localities in Puget Sound; however, the difference is not in proportion to the decrease in precipitation. During the latter half of the summer and early fall, fog banks from over the ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca result in considerable fog
and morning cloudiness in the lower elevations. The average July maximum temperature ranges from 65° F near the water to 70° or 75° F inland,
and the minimum temperature is near 50° F. Maximum temperatures seldom exceed 90° F. In January, maximum temperatures are in the 40’s and minimums in the lower 30’s. Minimum
temperatures between -5° and –8° F have been recorded; however, the minimum temperature
seldom drops below 15° to 20° F. The coldest weather is usually associated with an outbreak of cold air from the interior of Canada. The average date of the last freezing temperature in the spring ranges from the latter half of March near the water to the last of April in agricultural areas 100 to
300 feet above sea level and a few miles inland. The first freezing temperature in the fall is about the first of November.
DEMOGRAPHICS The county seat, Port Townsend, hosts nearly one third (8,334) of the total population of the county. The total land area of Jefferson County is 1,144,330 acres or 1814 square miles. (See Figure J-3 Taxing Districts.)
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The population has grown at an increasing rate. Jefferson County is one of the fastest growing counties in the state. From 1990 to 2000, the population of the county grew 27.2% and projections
indicate that growth will continue. (See Figure J-4 Population Trend Maps.) The county attracts many tourists during the summer months. On weekends during special events,
the population of Port Townsend is estimated to double. Surrounding communities also experience significant increased traffic and visitors. During the summer tourist season, for example, the population of the west end of Jefferson County can increase from 900 to 10,000. Population Trend
Over two decades there has been a discernible shift in the age make-up of the population from the
age group 25-40 towards the age group 65+. That shift is expected to continue in the decades from now until 2030, when the largest age group in the county will be the over-65 population. The overall trend is often described as the "graying" of the population.
Changing Age Mix in Total Washington State Population
The figure J-4 graphs show how Washington's population is getting older. The majority of the population for all years shown is in the 25 - 44 age group. However, while Washington's population
grows, the percentage of people 45 and older gets larger and the percentage of people 44 and under gets smaller.
POPULATION CENTERS
The county’s population centers are primarily based in the northeast corner of the county with Port Townsend having the highest density. Other communities including Port Ludlow, Port Hadlock, Chimacum, and Quilcene have experienced growth over the past several years and are expected to continue in this pattern. (See Figure J-5 Population Density.)
Communities in the “West End” of the county are the most sparsely permanently populated areas in the county. During the summer months, the “vacation population” in the West End almost doubles the area’s total population. Popular destinations include the Hoh Rainforest and Kalaloch
Ocean Beach located in the Olympic National Park. Hikers, campers, and visitors to lodges come from around the world to visit the Olympic Peninsula. ECONOMY
Personal income includes earned income, investment income, and government payments such as Social Security and Veterans Benefits. Investment income includes income imputed from pension funds and from owning a home. Per capita personal income equals total personal income divided by the resident population. Per capita personal income in Jefferson County in 2013 was $47,111 compared to $47,717 for the state and $44,765 for the nation. Jefferson County ranked third in the state in 2013 in per capita income. It ranked third in 2007 and 2008 and fourth in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2012.
Given its rural classification, it is not too surprising that Jefferson County has a slightly higher poverty rate than that of the state. According to the U.S. Census QuickFacts, 14.1 percent of those in the county were living below the poverty level compared to 13.2 percent of the state population
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and 14.8 percent of the U.S. population in the period 2010 through 2014. The state and national rates are not directly comparable to the county rate because they each use different data sources.5
See Figure J-6 for Land Use Distribution. Major Industries included: Pulp and Paper; Marine Trades/Boatbuilding; Wood
Products/Logging; Diversified Manufacturing; Tourism; and Health Care.
SIGNIFICANT HISTORICAL DISASTER EVENTS6
Jefferson County has recorded 18 major Presidential Declared Disasters since 1956, not counting those state-wide declarations that included it. It should be noted, that the criteria for qualification for disaster declaration has been modified over the years. In addition, as the population has grown, the impacts on people and property have also increased.
Table J-1 below shows the Federal Disaster Declarations for Washington State for the last 45 years.
Declarations that directly affected Jefferson County are highlighted in RED, while declarations that affected adjacent counties are highlighted in Blue. Jefferson County is impacted by disasters in neighboring counties in two ways:
1. It has mutual aid agreements with adjacent counties, so wildfires, windstorms, and landslides, for example, can and do result in Jefferson County resources being expended; and 2. Since Jefferson County is on a peninsula, strategically occurring disasters in neighboring counties can disrupt deliveries of food and fuel to Jefferson County just when it is needed most. An earthquake or storm that takes out the Hood Canal Bridge, for example, will cause major economic damage to Jefferson County.
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Table J-1 - Major Disaster Declarations for Washington 1956-2016
EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
February 1956 Maj. #50 - Flooding Adams, Benton, Franklin
March 1957 Maj. #70 - Flooding Douglas, Grant, Lincoln
October 1962 Maj. #137 - Columbus Day Wind Storm
Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom
March 1963 Maj. #146 - Flooding Columbia, Garfield, Grant, Whitman, City of Spokane
December 1964 Maj. #185 - Heavy rains / flooding
Asotin, Benton, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skamania, Snohomish, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima
May 1965 Maj. #196 - Earthquake King, Kitsap, Mason, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston
July 1970
FS #2002 – Forest /grass
land fire Okanogan County Department of Natural Resources
January 1971 Maj. #300 - Heavy rains /melting snow /flooding Columbia, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Skagit, Whatcom, Yakima
January 1972 Maj. #322 - Severe storms / flooding Asotin, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Pacific, Skamania, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whitman
February 1972 Maj. #328 - Heavy rains / flooding King, Pierce, Thurston
May 1972 Maj. #334 - Severe storms / flooding Chelan, Douglas, Okanogan
January 1974
Maj. #414 - Severe
storms / snowmelt / flooding
Asotin, Benton, Columbia, Ferry, Kitsap, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Thurston, Whitman, Yakima
December 1975 Maj. #492 - Severe storms / flooding Benton, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Whatcom, Yakima
March 1977 Emerg. #3037 - Drought Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima
December 1977 Maj. #545 - Severe storms / mudslides / flooding
Benton, Clark, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Pacific, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whitman, Yakima
March 1979 Emerg. #3070 - Flash flood Town of Mesa, Franklin County
July 1979
FS #2033 - Salmon
Creek Fire (Okanogan County)
Department of Natural Resources
December 1979 Maj. #612 – Storms / high tides / mudslides / flooding
Clallam, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Mason, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
May 1980 Maj. #623 - Mt. St. Helens eruption All 39 counties
August 1982 Emerg. #3086 - Threat of Spirit Lake flooding Skamania, Cowlitz, US Army Corps of Engineers, National Weather Service, US Geological Survey
December 1982 Maj. #676 - Severe storm/high tide/ flooding Whatcom
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EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
September 1985 FS #2058 - Barker Mt. fire (Okanogan County) Department of Natural Resources
January 1986 Maj. #757 - Severe storms/flooding Clallam, Jefferson, King
February 1986 Maj. #762 - Heavy
rain/slides/ flooding
Cowlitz
May 1986 Maj. #769 - Severe storm/dam failure Spokane
November 1986 Maj. #784 - Severe storms/flooding Cowlitz, King, Lewis, Pacific, Snohomish, Wahkiakum
September 1988 FS #2070 - Dinkleman Fire (Chelan County) Department of Natural Resources
March 1989 Maj. #822 - Heavy rains/sheet flooding Douglas, Okanogan, Stevens, Whitman
January 1990 Maj. #852 - Severe storms/flooding Benton, Grays Harbor, King, Lewis, Pierce, Thurston, Wahkiakum
November 1990 Maj. #883 - Severe storms/flooding Chelan, Clallam, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom, Yakima
December 1990 Maj. #896 - Storms/high wind/ flooding Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Snohomish, Whatcom
October 1991 Maj. #922 - Firestorm '91" and wind Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens, Whitman, Department of Natural Resources
August 1992 FS #2085 - Skookum Fire (Klickitat County) Department of Natural Resources
January 1993 Maj. #981 - Inaugural Day Windstorm King, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum
July 1994 FS 2103 - Tyee Fire (Chelan County) Department of Natural Resources, Military Department
July 1994 FS 2104 - Hatchery Creek Fire (Chelan County)
Department of Natural Resources, Military Department
August 1994 Major #1037 - El Nino - Salmon Clallam, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Pacific, Wahkiakum, Whatcom
November 1995 Major #1079 - Flooding and Wind (Nov - Dec
95) Declared Jan 3, 1996
Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Snohomish,
Thurston, Wahkiakum, Whatcom, Yakima
February 1996 Major #1100 - Flooding Declared February 9, 1996
Adams, Asotin, Benton, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Pierce, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima, and Yakima Indian Reservation
August 1996 FS 2186 - Bowie Road
Fire
Department of Natural Resources, Military Department
November 1996 Major #1152 - Ice Storm
Declared January 7, 1997
Klickitat, Pend Oreille and Spokane
December 1996 Major #1159 - Winter Storm Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Garfield, Grant, Grays
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EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
(Ice, snow, flooding) Declared January 17, 1997
Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Okanogan, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston, Walla Walla, Whatcom, Yakima
March 1997 Major #1172 - Flooding
Declared April 2, 1997
Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lincoln, Mason,
Pacific, Pierce, Pend Oreille, Stevens
April 1997 Major #1182 - Flooding
Declared July 21, 1997
Pend Oreille
July 1997 FS 2192 - Benton City Fire (Benton County)
Department of Natural Resources
August 1997 FS 2193 - Newkirk/Red Lake Fire (Spokane/Stevens County)
Department of Natural Resources
August 1997 FS 2194 - Olympia Command Fire (Benton County)
Department of Natural Resources
Mar - Nov 1998 Major 1255 - Landslide Declared October 16,
1998
Cowlitz County (Kelso)
May 1998 Major 1252 - Flooding
Declared October 5, 1998 Ferry and Stevens Counties
July 1998 FS 2225 - Cleveland Complex Fire Klickitat County
August 1998 FS 2237 - Ballpark Fire Cowlitz County
September 1998 FS 2248 - Toucannen Fire Columbia County
June 2000 FS 2311 - 24 Command Fire Benton County (Hanford Area)
July 2000 FS 2313 - Rocky Hull Fire Okanogan County
August 2000 FS 2323 - Mule Dry Fire Benton & Yakima Counties
February 2001
DR-1361 - Nisqually Earthquake Declared March 1, 2001
Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Douglas, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whatcom, Yakima
October 2003
DR 1499 Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, Mason, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom
January 27 to February 4, 2006
DR 1641 Severe
Storms, Flooding, Tidal Surge, Landslides, and Mudslides
Clallam, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, Kitsap, Mason,
Pacific, Pend Oreille, San Juan, Snohomish, and Wahkiakum Counties
November 2-11, 2006
DR 1671 Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
All counties in the State of Washington are eligible to apply for
assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
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EVENT DATE EVENT COUNTIES / RECIPIENTS
December 14-15, 2006 DR 1682 Severe Winter Storm, Landslides, and Mudslides
All counties in the State of Washington are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
December 1 - 17, 2007 DR 1743 Severe Storms and Flooding
Clallam Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Skagit, Snohomish, Thurston and Wahkiakum Counties.
December 2008 /
January 2009
DR 1817 Severe Winter
Storm, Landslides, Mudslides, and Flooding
Adams, Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Columbia, Cowlitz, Franklin, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, Whatcom, Whitman, and Yakima counties.
March 2009 DR 1825 Severe Winter
Storm and Record and Near Record Snow
Clallam, Clark, Columbia, Cowlitz, Garfield, Grays Harbor, Island,
Jefferson, King, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Pacific, Pend Oreille, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Thurston, Wahkiakum, Walla Walla, and Whatcom counties
March 2011 DR 1963 Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
King, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Skagit, Skamania, and Wahkiakum.
March 2012 DR 4056 Severe Winter Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
Clallam, Grays Harbor, King, Klickitat, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, and Wahkiakum
September 2012 DR 4083 Severe Storm, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding
Ferry and Okanogan counties and the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation
March 2014 ED 3370 Flooding and Mudslides State of Washington
April 2014 DR 4168 Flooding and Mudslides Snohomish County, including the lands associated with the Sauk-Suiattle, Stillaguamish, and Tulalip Tribes
August 2014 DR 4188 Wildfires Kittitas County, Okanogan County and the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation
August 2015 ED 3372 Wildfires Asotin, Chelan, Douglas, Ferry, Klickitat, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Spokane, Stevens, and Yakima and the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, the Kalispel Tribe of Indians, the Spokane Tribe of Indians, and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation
October 2015 DR 4242 Severe Windstorm Clallam, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, Snohomish and Whatcom counties
October 2015 DR 4243 Wildfires and
Mudslides
Chelan, Ferry, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Stevens, Whatcom and Yakima; as well as the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation
January 2016 DR 4249 Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides
Chelan, Clallam, Garfield, Island, Jefferson, Kittitas, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Snohomish, Spokane, Stevens, Wahkiakum, and Whitman counties
February 2016 DR 4253 Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding,
Landslides, Mudslides, and a Tornado
Clallam, Clark, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Lewis, Mason, Pacific, Skamania, and Wahkiakum counties
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Table J-2 below shows a sampling of significant disaster events that have impacted Port Townsend. Many happened before there were such things as “Disaster Declarations”, and show that the
Jefferson County area has always had its share of disaster events, even though there may not have been formal recognition at the time.
Table J-2 - Representative Port Townsend Disasters
NO DATE LOCATION DESCRIPTION
1 Dec 27, 1866 Downtown Port Townsend
Flood Tide inundated all of downtown. Water was reported as being
up to the armpits of a man at the current location of the Bishop Hotel.7
2 Jan 6, 1880 Port Townsend Major Snow Storm; 4 feet of snow; drifts up to 10 feet high.8 Snow in Quilcene lasted until March 20th.9
3 Jan 1893 Port Townsend Major Snow Storm10
4 Feb 3, 1916 Port Townsend Major Snow Storm; Reported as 30.5 inches in 24 hours.11
5 Dec 25, 1919 Port Townsend Major Snow Storm12
6 Dec 22, 1955 Port Townsend Major Snow Storm13
7 Oct 12, 1962 Region Columbus Day Storm; Blew roof off of building that currently
houses PTPD. Many trees down. Much damage.14
8 Dec 28-29 1968 Port Townsend Ice Storm15
9 2002 Port Townsend Prolonged Drought. Port Townsend Paper lays off workers and shuts down production to conserve Port Townsend’s water supply.16
10 Sept 20 – 22,2016 Port Townsend
City Water Supply tested positive for toxins. Preparations were
made to issue boil water orders and deliver bottled water, but subsequent testing showed the water to be okay.
11 November 6, 2016 Port Townsend Landslide six hundred feet from the ferry dock closes State Highway 20 for three hours in downtown Port Townsend.
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MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL HAZARD
IDENTIFICATION
Table of Figures
J-1 Map of Jefferson County, Washington; Source: Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management J-2 Jefferson County & Vicinity Geology, Source: derived from the Geologic Map of Washington, Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources, 2013 J-3 Jefferson County Taxing Districts, GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington J-4 Population Trend Maps, Source: U.S. Census Bureau J-5 Jefferson County Population Density, Source: GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington J-6 Jefferson County Land Use Distribution, GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington, August 2012
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Figure J-1 – Jefferson County Washington
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Figure J-2 - Jefferson County & Vicinity Geology
(Derived from Geologic Map of Washington17)
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Figure J-3 East Jefferson County Taxing Districts
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Figure J-4 - Population Trend Maps Over two decades there has been a discernible shift in the age make-up of the population. That shift is
expected to continue in the decades reaching 2030. The overall trend is often described as the "graying" of the population.
Changing Age Mix in Total Washington State Population18
The above graphs show how Washington's population is getting older. The majority of the population for all years shown is in the 25 - 44 age group. However, while Washington's population grows, the percentage of people 45 and older gets larger, while the percentage of people 44 and under gets smaller. The changing age mix is shown in the maps below. Note: Counties with more than one most represented age group are given
a hashed pattern with the colors from both age groups.
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Most Represented Age Group by County in 1980
Source: WA Office of Financial Management http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/coagemf/EST80-1989.xls
Most Represented Age Group by County in 2000
Source: US Census Bureau 2000 SF3, P008 http://www.census.gov/
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Most Represented Age Group by County in 2030
Source: WA Office of Financial Management http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/gma/county_age.xls
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Figure J-5 – Population Density
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Figure J-6 Land Use Distribution
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References
1. The Jefferson County Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA), Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management, January 2016. 2. Risk Report for Jefferson County, including the City of Port Townsend and the Hoh Tribe, FEMA, Resilience Action Partners, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Washington Department of Ecology, and RiskMAP, January 2016, 34 pp. Available at: http://www.jeffcoeoc.org/documents/JeffersonCounty_RiskReport_Final_508.pdf 3. County and City Data for Jefferson County, Washington State Data Book - 2014, Washington Office of Financial Management. Available at: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/databook/pdf/53031.pdf 4. Jefferson County Washington, Wikipedia. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_County,_Washington 5. Jefferson County Profile by Jim Vleming, Regional Labor Economist, Washington Employment Security Department, December 2015. Available at: https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/county-profiles/jefferson-county-profile 6. Disaster Declarations for Washington, FEMA, Available at: http://www.fema.gov/disasters/grid/state-tribal-government/89?field_disaster_type_term_tid_1=All 7. Port Townsend An Illustrated History of Shanghaiing, Shipwrecks, Soiled Doves and Sundry
Souls”, Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing Inc., 2000, p. 438.
8. Ibid., 441
9. Port Townsend The City that Whiskey Built, Thomas W. Camfield, Ah Tom Publishing Inc.,
2002, p. 256. 10. Ibid., 7,441
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid. 13. Ibid., 7,443
14. Ibid., 437. 15. Ibid., 436. 16. “Rain would ease drought conditions”, By Philip L. Watness, Port Townsend Leader, November 6, 2002.
17. Jefferson County & Vicinity Geology, derived from the Geologic Map of Washington, Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources, 2013 18. Changing Age Mix in Total Washington State Population, Washington Office of Financial Management, 2009
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Tables
J-1 Major Disaster Declarations for Washington 1956-2016 J-2 Representative Port Townsend Disasters Figures
J-1 Map of Jefferson County, Washington; Source: Jefferson County Department of Emergency Management
J-2 Jefferson County & Vicinity Geology, Source: derived from the Geologic Map of Washington,
Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources, 2013
J-3 Jefferson County Taxing Districts, GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington
J-4 Population Trend Maps, Source: U.S. Census Bureau
J-5 Jefferson County Population Density, Source: GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington
J-6 Jefferson County Land Use Distribution, GIS Department, Jefferson County Washington, August 2012
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Climate Change
Climate Change and Resiliency Considerations
FEMA recognizes challenges posed by climate change, including more intense storms, frequent heavy precipitation, heat waves, drought, extreme flooding, and
higher sea levels. These phenomena may have impacts on mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery operations as well as the resiliency of
critical infrastructure and various emergency assets. FEMA encourages
Recipients and subrecipients to consider climate change adaptation and resiliency
in their planning and scoping efforts1. FEMA recognizes that it is prudent for jurisdictions to be aware of and plan for more severe climatic events in the future, regardless of what they may be. In its 2011 FEMA Climate Change Adaptation Policy Statement, paragraph IV.A.5 states, “The current standards and guidance, based on today’s climate, may not anticipate the risks structures will face as the climate changes. Therefore, it is important to review guidance and standards to determine the feasibility of incorporating future
climate change considerations, and encourage the integration of adaptation measures into local planning and development practices2.” The implications to participants of the Plan are that in the future: 1. FEMA will require updated plans to address climate change in its planning, and
2. Climate change factors will be included in Benefit / Cost Analysis for projects.
Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend are already proceeding down those lines as steadily as economic feasibility allows. In 2007, they issued a Joint Resolution (County Resolution 44-073, City Resolution 07-0224), committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and empowering a joint City/County citizen’s committee to develop a Local Climate Action Plan.
In 2008, the County and the City issues a Joint Resolution (County Resolution 02-085, City Resolution 08-0016) Providing Composition Terms of Office and Procedural Rules for the Climate Action Committee to create a Climate Action Plan (CAP) for the county. This was followed in January, 2009 with a Joint Resolution (County Resolution 06-097, City Resolution 09-0028) adopting an Inventory of Energy Usage and Associated Greenhouse Gas
Emissions, Backcasts, Forecasts, and Interim Targets & Approving Climate Change Committee Workplan.9 In November, 2011, the County and the City adopted the Climate Action Plan10 created by the Climate Action Committee, and proceeded to implement it. The policies and goals of the Climate Action Plan parallel that of the Federal and State governments and will show up in this and future
hazard mitigation plans as policy changes and strategic development to enhance the resilience of the area.
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Climate Change Definition
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties (principally its
mean and spread) of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Niño, do not represent climate change.11
“The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.12 In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. Within scientific journals, global warming refers to surface temperature increases while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels affect.13”
For the purposes of the Jefferson County – City of Port Townsend Hazard Mitigation Plan (Plan), we will use the first definition rather than narrow our focus to only global warming.
It is not the purpose of this Plan to advocate a particular solution for global warming. Rather, it is the purpose of this Plan to identify the range of possibilities that can affect the natural hazards in Jefferson County and call those out so that the participants in the Plan can look at the issues that uniquely affect them and decide what is a reasonable adaptation to mitigate future harm to their jurisdiction.
The conundrum that we face in evaluating climate change for the purposes of hazard mitigation is to first find rational predictors of the mean and spread of conditions or events that presage disaster conditions. That is a significant purpose of this document – to provide a summary of the best available science – and some outliers – that provide the reader with the possibilities and probabilities of the hazards identified as threatening Jefferson County jurisdictions.
Where possible, we will use estimates and probabilities relating to the local area. Our primary sources for this will be: 1. Climate Action Plan for Port Townsend / Jefferson County Washington, Adopted November
14, 2011
2. Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula, September 2015
3. Best Available Science Report, Jefferson County Critical Areas Ordinance Update, December
15, 2015
4. Risk Report for Jefferson County including the City of Port Townsend and the Hoh Tribe,
January, 2016.
If we find other credible sources in addition to the above, we will use them too. Our goal is to present the range of possibilities for the next five years, so that participants in the Plan can update their strategies and implement them as quickly as economically feasible.
Summary of Predictions
“It is increasingly apparent that the global climate is rapidly changing and that these changes will affect the people, ecosystems, economy, and culture of the North Olympic Peninsula. The most noticeable impacts will likely include:
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• A diminishing snowpack lowering the region’s summer river flow and extending the summer drought season;
• Shifts in the timing and type of precipitation, creating rain on snow events and unseasonably high stream flows that scour river bottoms and flood low-land areas;
• Ongoing sea level rise driving coastal flooding, saltwater inundation, and enhanced shoreline erosion;
• Extended warm temperatures which result in increased river water temperatures, enhanced
wildfire risk, decreased soil moisture, and stressed forests through disease and insect outbreaks; and
• Increasingly corrosive ocean waters (i.e. ocean acidification) from the ongoing absorption of human emissions of CO2. “14
Table CC-1 presents a summary of the climate change predictions developed for the Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula.15
Table CC-1 - Climate Change Predictions for the North Olympic Peninsula15
Climate Changes1 Observed Changes Future Projections
Temperature Averages (for Pacific Northwest) Warmed 1.3oF (1895-2011) By 2050’s – between 4.3o-5.8oF average increase in all seasons.
Temperature Extremes Increase in nighttime
heat events.
Slight increase in days over 90oF (+8 days) for the Pacific
Northwest (PNW), with limited increase in days over 95oF on the
Olympic Peninsula2. Longer frost-free season (+35 days) across
PNW.
Precipitation Averages
(for Pacific Northwest) No significant change in
amount; region wide
decrease in snowpack
and glaciers.
Little average annual change – with drier summers (-6% to -8%
average decrease). Continued declining snowpack with a
significant loss of snowpack in Olympics by 20803.
Precipitation Extremes Ambiguous More heavy rainfall events: 13% (±7%) increase in days with >1
inch of rain.
Future Sea Level Rise4
(probability that mean sea
level will reach or exceed
____ feet at a given year)
Neah Bay 50% chance of ≥ 0.3 feet (2050) and ≥ 1.3 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 0.7 feet (2050) and ≥ 2.7 feet (2100)
Clallam
Bay/Sekiu
50% chance of ≥ 0.3 feet (2050) and ≥ 1.3 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 0.7 feet (2050) and ≥ 2.7 feet (2100)
Port
Angeles
50% chance of ≥ 0.6 feet (2050) and ≥ 1.9 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 0.9 feet (2050) and ≥ 3.3 feet (2100)
Port
Townsend
50% chance of ≥ 0.9 feet (2050) and ≥ 2.4 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 1.2 feet (2050) and ≥ 3.9 feet (2100)
Future Annual Coastal Flood
Elevation5
(probability that mean sea
level will reach or exceed
____ feet in a given year)
Neah Bay 50% chance of ≥ 3.5 feet (2050) and ≥ 4.5 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 4.4 feet (2050) and ≥ 6.2 feet (2100)
Clallam Bay/Sekiu 50% chance of ≥ 3.5 feet (2050) and ≥ 4.5 feet (2100) 5% chance of ≥ 4.4 feet (2050) and ≥ 6.2 feet (2100)
Port
Angeles
50% chance of ≥ 2.6 feet (2050) and ≥ 3.9 feet (2100)
5% chance of ≥ 3.5 feet (2050) and ≥ 5.5 feet (2100)
Port Townsend 50% chance of ≥ 2.9 feet (2050) and ≥ 4.5 feet (2100) 5% chance of ≥ 3.8 feet (2050) and ≥ 6.1 feet (2100)
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Table CC-1 References
1 Unless otherwise noted, climate observations and projections in this table are from; University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, 2013. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Washington State: Technical Summaries for Decision
Makers. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/reports.shtml
2 Kunkel, K., Stevens, L., Stevens, S., Liquiang, S., Janssen, E., Wuebbles, D., Redmond, R., Dobson, J.G., 2013 Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. national Climate Assessment, NOAA Technical Report NESDIS142-6.
3 Mantua, N., Tohver, I., Hamlet, A., 2009. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Impacts of Climate Change
on Key Aspects of Freshwater Salmon Habitat in Washington State. In The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment:
Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle,
Washington. Available: http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach6salmon649.pdf
4 See section I.E. of this report, and Appendix C & D, for more information on this Sea Level Rise modeling methodology and
outcomes.
5 Ibid. Source: Petersen, S., Bell, J., Miller, I., Jayne, C., Dean, K., Fougerat, M., 2015. Climate Change Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula. A Project of the North Olympic Peninsula Resource Conservation & Development Council and the Washington Department of Commerce, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency. Available: www.noprcd.org
The extensive effort to predict the natural and human influences on future changes in climate has been focused on how a number of the indicative climate variables (e.g., surface, air and ocean temperatures and precipitation) will change. Complex models of climate, validated by comparison
with past observations, are driven by estimates of future societal energy use and variable natural inputs, such as solar radiation. No such model is perfect, so predictions from a number of models are combined to produce a best estimate and spread of how these climate variables will change in the future. Most hazards are rare events (low probability, high impact) and, thus not directly addressed by this type of model-ensemble prediction. Nevertheless, some trends predicted with great confidence by climate models do alter the likelihood of some hazards, such as the prediction of more frequent, more intense rainstorms increasing the probability of flooding, and drier summers increasing wildfire risk. It is unfortunate that future climate change is sometimes labeled "global warming" because, although the most direct impact of increased greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere is warming of the
globally averaged temperature, one of the most important consequences is an increase in weather variability. This is particularly relevant when considering hazard occurrence. As an example, increased storminess during the winter will cause more severe snowstorms and likely raise the danger
of avalanches. A final cautionary note is that while human-driven climate change is upon us and will continue, there
are natural factors that can forestall, and even temporarily reverse, some of the eventual changes. Volcanoes are the most often cited example. Particles ejected into the upper atmosphere by volcanoes have repeatedly caused sufficient reductions in solar insolation to cool the planet. The cooling effect is temporary, typically lasting 3 years, but because the scope of this report is not much longer, the possibility of such cooling events cannot be ignored.
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Integration of Climate Change into Jurisdictional Planning
The implications of current FEMA thinking to participants of the Plan are that in the near future: 1. FEMA will require updated plans to address climate change in its planning;
and
2. Climate change factors will be mandatory in Benefit / Cost Analysis for
projects.
A reasonable approach needs to be to make rational choices based on each jurisdiction’s needs and
economic strength, and based on the best science available – but maintaining flexibility in case things change. Appendix A of the NOP R&CD report presents 30 pages of adaptive solutions that can be used to enhance strategic planning.16 Figure CC-1 provides excerpts from the DRAFT Port of Port
Townsend Capital Repair & Replacement Plan (2016-2021) as an illustration of how it can be worked into a jurisdiction’s planning.17
Figure CC-1 – Excerpts from DRAFT Port of Port Townsend Capital Plan (2016-2021)17
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Source: Port of Port Townsend http://portofpt.com/planning/
How this document deals with climate change.
For each hazard, as appropriate, we added a “climate change” subsection that addresses what types of change may occur and how it can change the character of that hazard for our participants. Recommendations on how to deal with the climate change, whether from ad hoc reports or direct public input will be included in Stakeholder/Citizen Suggested Mitigation Strategies and
Projects in Section III, Multi-Jurisdiction / Multi-Hazard Mitigation.
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It is noteworthy that this Plan is an All-Hazards Plan and that the impact of some kinds of climate change will seriously affect what we have called “Man-made Hazards.” What happens, for example, when a tsunami or flood takes out the power sub-station at the bottom of Discovery Bay? The FEMA Firm shown in Figure CC-2 below is from 1982; Preliminary Revised FIRMs released in February, 2016 show the A-zone to be right against the PUD substation, where the conservancy is marked in the 1982 FIRMs. The county does not have the new FIRMs in their database yet because the FIRMs are still going through the vetting process (September 2016).
Figure CC-2 - Jefferson County Discovery Bay Power Substation with Hazard Zones in Vicinity
In the end, it will be up to each jurisdiction to decide what it can and can’t do – and to
prepare accordingly.
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References
1. Hazard Mitigation Assistance Guidance, Federal Emergency Management Association, February 27, 2015, p. 16. 2. FEMA Climate Change Adaptation Policy Statement, Administrator Policy 2011-OPPA-01, 2011, Paragraph IV.A.5, page 3. 3. Jefferson County Resolution 44-07, Jefferson County Washington, 2007. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/Co_Res_44-07_City07-022.pdf 4. City of Port Townsend Resolution 07-022, Jefferson County Washington, 2007. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/Co_Res_44-
07_City07-022.pdf 5. Jefferson County Resolution 02-08, Jefferson County Washington, 2008. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/CACresolution_02-08_08-001.pdf
6. City of Port Townsend Resolution 08-001, Jefferson County Washington, 2008. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/CACresolution_02-08_08-001.pdf
7. Jefferson County Resolution 06-09, Jefferson County Washington, 2009. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/CAC%20Joint%20Res
%20006%2009.pdf 8. City of Port Townsend Resolution 09-002, Jefferson County Washington, 2008. Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/CAC%20Joint%20Res
%20006%2009.pdf
9. Inventory of Energy Usage and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Base Year 2005 in Jefferson County and the City of Port Townsend, Climate Protection Task Force, July 30, 2008.
Available at: http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/Jefferson%20County
%202005%20Emissions%20Inventory%20Final%20Draft%207-30-08.pdf
10. Climate Action Plan for Port Townsend / Jefferson County Washington, Climate Action Committee, June 15, 2011, pp. 107. Available at:
http://www.co.jefferson.wa.us/commdevelopment/PDFS/Climate_Change/Final%20Draft%20CAP%20with%20Appendices.pdf
11. Terminology, Climate Change, Wikipedia, Accessed multiple times, 2016. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
12. “The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, 21 March 1994. Climate change means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is an addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.
13. “What’s in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change”, NASA, Retrieved 23 July 2011.
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14. Petersen, S., Bell, J., Miller, I., Jayne, C., Dean, K., Fougerat, M., 2015. Climate Change
Preparedness Plan for the North Olympic Peninsula. A Project of the North Olympic Peninsula Resource Conservation & Development Council and the Washington Department of Commerce, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency. p. I. Available: www.noprcd.org
15. Ibid. II.
16. Ibid. Appendix A. Available: www.noprcd.org
17. 2016-2021 Capital Repair & Replacement Plan Partial Draft #1, Port of Port Townsend, Port Townsend, WA, December 8, 2015, pp. 8-10. Available at: http://portofpt.com/wp-
content/uploads/DraftCRRP-120815.pdf
Tables
CC-1 Climate Change Predictions for the North Olympic Peninsula
Figures
CC-1 Excerpt from Port of Port Townsend Capital Plan (2015-2022)
CC-2 Jefferson County Power Substation with Hazard Zones in Vicinity
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