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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of Port Townsend Trends �WdAla � Port Townsend 2036 Comp Plan City of Port Townsend Trends • World population is expected to increase from 7.2 to 9.1 billion by 2050 • Economic growth correlates with energy use • Since 1964, fossil fuel consumption has outpaced oil discoveries 4:1 Climate Change • Avg annual temperatures in 2050 are expected to be 4.5°F to 5.8°F warmer' • More damaging storm events can be expected as sea level rises 3-22" by 2050 • More precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow — impacting ecosystems, municipal water supplies, and storm water systems ..rA ll Demographics e� • Population growth has slowed markedly (<I% CAGR over the planning period)' • Port Townsend's 2036 population is expected to be less than was anticipated for 2024 • Preliminary numbers estimate growth of 2,711 people (2016-2036) • The City's share of countywide population is decreasing (34.6% in 1992: 30.5% today) • Net migration continues to be the source of growth 'Relative to 1950-1999) 2 Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) • The population of senior citizens has grown markedly—24.6% Seniors: (12.3% in State) • Median age is the County is 17 years higher than the state (54.6. vs. 37.9) • Port Townsend households are small: 1.99 persons per household (2009-13) Education • The population is well educated compared to state averages (High school 95.8% vs. 90%: BA or higher: 42.4% vs. 31.9%) • School enrollment is dropping (20% in 2000 to about 16% today) • PTSD launches Maritime Discovery Schools initiative • Fort Worden Lifelong Learning Center- Peninsula and Goddard Colleges Personal • Investment income & transfer income represents 60% of personal income, well above the state average (36%) • About 17% of PT residents live on incomes below the federal poverty level (State 13.4%) • High percentage of families with children live in poverty (23.6% vs. State 14.6%) • In contrast, 23.6% of households earn more than $75,000/year Economy :• High percentage of self-employed (26-27% , more than double 10% statewide average) earning an estimated 30% less than wage and salary employees • Avg. firm size is small: 7employees/establishment (about V2 the statewide avg.) • Recession hit County hard—1,380 jobs lost (15%)—recovery has been slower • Unemployment is higher in Jefferson County ( 8.1% vs. 6.1% statewide)5 • Median wage for County is $19.33/hr. vs. statewide median of$22.09/hour • Over 70% of the countywide employment total lies within the 98368 zip code s Hovee: 2015 a Hovee: 2015 s Hovee report Data from November 2014) • Unemployment+ overconcentration of lower paid jobs = low median wage • Relatively low percentage of persons in labor force (56% vs. 65% statewide) • An additional 940 jobs are forecast for Jefferson County (2012-2022)6 • March 2012 cost of living index in Port Townsend: 90.7 (U.S. average is 100)' 9 Housing Stock • Port Townsend had 5,141 housing units in 2013 (73.5% single family; 23.6% multi-family and 2.8% manufactured/mobile) • Since 1990, the number of multi-family housing units has increased substantially (+663 units, or 121%) • 59% of households are owner occupied; down from 67% in 1990 • Second homes may be on the rise; the percentage of unoccupied units increased (7.7% in 1990 vs. 12% in 2013) Housing d , ' • At just over $41,000 per year, median household income 30% below the statewide median • Conversely, median home values at close to $290,000 are about 11% above the comparable statewide median • The median household income to median home price ratio has widened significantly since 1990, from 1:4.3 to 1:7.25 — 1:3 is considered affordable • However, since 2008, the housing affordability gap countywide has narrowed: a Jefferson County family with a median household income faces a gap of approx. $8,000, down from $32,000 in 20089 Transportation E • 35% of workers get to work by means other than driving alone (vs. 27% statewide) • Ferry commuter trips are down; recreational trips are up • Mean travel time to work(commute): 14.6 minuteslo 6 Employment Securities Department(ESD) City-data.com a Hovee:2015 9 ClyCAP Community Needs Assessment,June 2013. 10 Ciy-data.com